This is my weekly column for the Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010 edition of the Hibbing Daily Tribune.

Scary amount of election cash this All Hallows (Election) Eve
By Aaron J. Brown

The Washington Post reported last week that candidates will spend more than a combined $2 billion in the nation’s House and Senate races so far this election cycle, about $4 million per seat. Compare that total to the $2.3 billion people are projected to spend on Halloween costumes this year, according to IBIS World from a Jason Notte story in The Street.

The specter of political spending rising to Halloween levels is a campfire tale that should have you rattling in your boots. After all, this figure does not include the vast expenditures by the political parties and outside groups, who generally produce the nastiest of the ads we see on TV. Nevertheless, with Election Day always falling so close to Halloween, we Americans sure dedicate an impressive amount of resources to frighten people into giving up votes or candy and/or their own sense of shame.

In addition to more or less matching costume buyers, U.S. political candidates this year will spend more than all Halloween candy sales, slated to run about $1.77 billion according to the National Retail Federation. When you see a political ad on TV just know that one political ad equals roughly 960 fun size Snicker bars. Which would you rather have?

The NRF, again from that same story in The Street, projects Americans will spend about $66.28 apiece on Halloween this year (this includes the decorations, cards and party supplies). Candidates will spend a combined $6 per person on Congressional races. To be fair, if we factored the cost of “party supplies” into politics, the resulting number would be more like a theoretical symbol requiring special key strokes. But, by the available numbers, Halloween still leads the way by a factor of 10.

There remain some spooky questions here. For instance, when I buy my kids a pumpkin at the local patch, purchase a hard hat for my Bob the Builder doppelganger, or acquire a bag of candy to “hand out” to local “kids,” I know who profits. But who profits from political spending?

It’s not exactly right to say the candidates profit, because by law half of them lose. Even the winners go on to earn far less than was spent on their behalf as members of Congress, at least until they cash in and become lobbyists or cable news commentators down the line. The real winners might be the interests advanced by those candidates, ideally puppies, apple pie and hard work and not Big “Name of Word that Makes You Angry.” But political spending has become more of a standard operating expense for these groups, something that will never end.

No, the real profits of these political expenditures can probably be traced up the chain of the media, far past the talking heads and bylines you see every day. A layer of consultants, opinion merchants and tycoons reap the rewards of those nasty ads on TV. They aren’t Republicans or Democrats, not really. They’re something else, not mercenaries exactly, but the kinds of people who would raise a private army if they didn’t own the people who ran the real one. To me, this whole enterprise is far scarier than any ghosts, goblins or zombies you might see wandering around this Halloween.

So Happy Halloween, everyone! Today is a fun day. Don’t forget to vote on Tuesday, not out of fear, but with deep, abiding courage and foresight. May your pockets be full of Milky Ways when you cast your ballot. Chew with conviction, and know that the candy now costs less than what we call democracy these days.

Aaron J. Brown is an Iron Range writer and community college instructor. Read more at MinnesotaBrown.com or in his book “Overburden: Modern Life on the Iron Range.”

We're entering the final countdown of the 2010 election, a contest that will go down as a very informative historical study on the voting habits of (in no particular order) Americans, Minnesotans and the people of Minnesota's 8th Congressional District.

It's good that I have been plowing through "The Rise of American Democracy" by Sean Wilentz during this campaign. It helps knowing that as crazy as things seem now, with the rise of the tea party and the like, that our nation was a good deal crazier and significantly more fragile in the early 19th century leading up to the Civil War, still this nation's ultimate existential crisis. So I have the perspective of knowing that a Republican landslide would have much less impact now than when democratic-republican landslides 200 years ago launched us into the War of 1812, which almost caused us to lose the northeast and the Upper Midwest to the British. It was lonely being a federalist then, significantly more lonely than being a liberal on Tuesday. For some reason I have the image of Paul Giamatti merging his performance as John Adams in the biopic of the same name with his Oscar-nominated turn in "Sideways," drinking his best wine from a brown paper bag in a fast food restaurant, careful not to stain his powdered wig.

I've highlighted some local Iron Range races of note. I'll be very interested in the governor's and state legislative races, for implications abound over political leadership and quality of life in this state regardless of your party stripe. But the big event for a northern Minnesota political junkie has to be the outcome of the suddenly competitive Minnesota 8th Congressional District race between Jim Oberstar and Chip Cravaack (both pictured above right).

Setting aside my personal loyalties to Jim Oberstar, this race will be very telling about the political make-up of Minnesota's 8th over the next 10 years or maybe more. On one hand it could seem shocking that a 36-year incumbent like Oberstar would find himself in a statistical tie in a Survey USA poll heading into this week. But in retrospect there should only be some surprise. The 8th is only marginally Democratic in non-Congressional races. MN-8 is becoming more demographically similar to the other Lake Superior districts WI-7 and MI-1, both of which are tossup races likely to break Republican this year. I've warned of this change in the past. My only surprise is that we'd be having this conversation before Jim Oberstar retired.

The credit there really must go to Cravaack, whose enthusiastic campaign (and lack of specifics) has made him very attractive to the kind of independent conservatives and marginal Republicans who have given Oberstar his huge margins over the years. When the race tightened the Cravaack campaign responded with gusto and the Oberstar campaign, with its guns fixed out to sea, a la "Lawrence of Arabia, wasn't prepared for the surprise attack. We've seen Oberstar return fire via the TV ad wars in the Duluth market, but it should be known that if Cravaack prevails it will be because of his phantom insurgency.

I still predict an Oberstar win, but it could be a long night and a margin closer to 53-47 than my earlier prediction of 57-43. The main question I have on the polling of the 8th is the geographic balance. Duluth will be weighted as the district's biggest and most Democratic city, but I don't know how national pollsters account for the odd voting patterns of the Iron Range. Cravaack will do very well in the populous exurban southern districts of the Eighth, which generally report first. Oberstar will start the night behind, hoping for Duluth and the Iron Range to hold the line. I suspect they will, but it could be close. Look for towns like Hibbing or Virginia. If Oberstar is under 60 percent in these place, there will be trouble. If he is losing the rural townships like McDavitt in St. Louis County, or my home township of Balsam in Itasca County, there will be trouble. If Iron Range or Duluth turnout is down in any measurable way, there will be trouble. These are the things I'll be watching on election night.

Democrats believed 2008 was a change election. Republicans believe the same about this year's election. They're both right. Change is coming either way and we're witnessing the resulting conflict. Let's have it out. American history needed both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, even if the two really hated each other. A lot.

Join me this Saturday morning for "Between You and Me" on 91.7 KAXE. The show blends calls, commentary, music and more for a unique northern Minnesota media experience. This week's topic is "bring back." Say what? Well, that just means we'll be talking about all the things, both specific and conceptual, that we want back.

Readers don't need to be reminded that living and working on the Iron Range means a nearly constant sensation of wanting things back. Jobs back. Stores back. People back. My mission for the day, and every day, is to fight that sensation. Knock that sh** down, brothers and sisters! Fight for something we actually can get back, which is the future. It's a "very special" essay.

This should be a good show, and one you should jump in on if you can. Tune in between 10 a.m. to noon on 91.7 FM in northern Minnesota or streaming live all over the world at www.kaxe.org. The show and my essays are syndicated at Public Radio Exchange thanks to the generous support of the State of Minnesota's Arts and Heritage amendment.

Tom Scheck of Minnesota Public Radio covered last night's Iron Range DFL rally in Virginia. Audio links to speeches from Congressman Jim Oberstar and Mark Dayton are included.

The New York Times Book Review has a story ("All Programs Considered" by Bill McKibben) that fits nicely, perhaps too nicely, with thoughts I have been having lately about the direction of my writing and media projects.

You know that this blog and my columns, essays and book, are professional in that I am sometimes paid, but mostly would fall into the category of a hobby. I am a college teacher by trade, formerly a journalist. But I have great passion for my writing. I see my work here tied to my belief in public service and the arts, and am resolving to step up my game as I gradually move into the less adorable part of my 30s. It's that or politics. Frankly, longtime readers have probably witnessed the progression of my thoughts on politics move to a rather dark place. Further, the political lifestyle, which I understand all too well, is wholly incompatible with my family. I can do as much or more with the pen; I can do it here on the Iron Range; and so I will.

So read this story about public radio programs and podcasts. Radio was once written off for dead, but now has an even brighter future than newspapers or perhaps even blogs. The reason is because radio is a multi-tasking medium. People can take radio with them, put the sounds directly into their heads through electronic devices, and continue doing anything else they want. Radio is intimate and, for good or bad, continues to shape our culture. My first media job was in radio. Some of my best work was in radio. It's time to come home. More on this later. Some big changes to my routine, and thus this blog and my other writing, are coming in the new year.

(h/t for the NYT story, 3quarksdaily)

TYWKIWDBI reports on the massive winds of yesterday's storms in the middle of the country, including this NOAA graphic of waves on Lake Superior. Shipping companies pulled all the ore ships off the lake out of deference to the storied "Gales of November" made famous by sinking the legendary SS Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975. Those purple areas indicate 20-25 waves! (Projected, not likely actual).

You should check out the post, where access to Gordon Lightfoot's popular song about the sinking of the Fitz has been made available. I have long desired a bluegrass version of The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, with the uptempo banjo chords playing a sadly ironic turn on the lyrics. I have since given up on the remote possibility of me ever learning to play the banjo and, thus, give this idea to the internet. If you can make it happen all I ask is that you let me license the song for a future project I have in mind.

Winds are still strong in northern Minnesota. Watch for trees, fellow woods people.

A sluggish national economic recovery means the recently buoyant steel industry is tempering its optimism. Things aren't bad, per se, but U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal are seeing orders drop as new construction in the U.S. and Europe continues to tread water.

It would seem to me that new construction would and probably should remain slower than what was seen in the 2000s as people, businesses and governments catch up with the massive debt and overvaluation racked up during that time. How bearish of me. Where's my monocle? I need to read the fine print of my old timey railroad stocks. But I digress...

This is another reminder that we in northern Minnesota cannot keep resting our future economic growth on mining or the ancillary industry surrounding mining, such as energy or heavy equipment. We need a new economy to stand on the shoulders of our natural resource base if we're ever going to break the negative cycles of the past. We need creative people to create. Now.

(Story from Star Tribune, AP)

If politics is your thing, the Iron Range DFL will be holding a bean feed and rally at the Miners Memorial Building in Virginia Thursday night with DFL nominee for governor Mark Dayton, U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar and others on the DFL ticket. Virginia native Paul Metsa will be on hand as the musical entertainment. The event runs from 5:30 to 7:30 and should be quite the barnburner. If the speeches don't get you, the beans will. This are progressive labor beans and they know how to organize.

The event is open to the public and, no, you do not have to eat beans unless you want to. You do not have to bring beans, unless you want to. The bean thing is a historic reference to the preponderance of bean feeds held during the early years of the Democratic Farmer Labor party. If I've learned anything in 12 years of political organizing on the Range it's that you better show deference to the beans.

Instead of the typical partisan bickering, please use the comments for bean jokes. It's the sort of thing that unites us, instead of dividing us. Unless we've recently eaten beans. See, this can just keep going like this.

Following the successful "Art in the Park" outdoor live music series this summer, the Minnesota Discovery Center in Chisholm will be holding free indoor acoustic music shows starting this Thursday, Oct. 28. Seems like a good idea to me.

Minnesota Discovery Center introduces Acoustic Café

In a partnership with the Iron Range Original Music Association, Minnesota Discovery Center announces “Acoustic Café,” a new community music forum the last Thursday of the month through the fall and winter. Local musicians will be featured from 6:30 to 8:30 in the Discovery Center dining area. Admission is free. Food and beverage available for purchase. The first Acoustic Café is set for Thursday, October 28. Michael Drianis, Josh Palmi and Mark Henderson will play original acoustic music. For more information, call 218-254-1223 or find Minnesota Discovery Center on Facebook. Go to myspace.com/iroma2009 for details about the musicians. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the next Acoustic Café will be held Thursday, November 18.

The first phase of a memorial site for the Milford Mine disaster of 1924 is complete in Crow Wing County. The Milford tragedy took the lives of 41 miners on the Cuyuna Range, one of the three major historic iron ranges in northern Minnesota.

A park commemorating something so awful might not be the ball of fun one looks for in an outdoor recreation site, but its important that this site be remembered. The progress won for American workers -- the five-day work week, the eight-hour work day, safety requirements and fair pay -- was won on the backs of workers like the ones trapped beneath the ground at Milford. For a long time this site has been hard to reach. Now I have another stop to make next time I'm down Crosby way.

We've heard a lot of talk about balancing the federal budget, securing our nation for our children and grandchildren lately. It's a tea party mantra, but not a new idea. Several decades of deficit spending under governments run by either or both parties have led us to this low place.

Esquire magazine took a few days to hash out a budget solution that would secure Social Security, balance the budget and attack the national debt by the year 2020. Most of the items on the list would be extremely unpopular in an electoral context, but when you read them you'll probably catch yourself admitting: this could work. If we could get a majority of Americans to endorse the notion of doing something difficult, that has negative effects in the short run, to secure the government in the long run, we could do this. Take a look yourself. You don't have to balance the budget this way, but remember that everything you change has to be accompanied either with a specific, quantifiable tax increase or a specific spending cut. Be specific. And the budget is 75 percent military, Social Security or Medicare -- all things considered "politically untouchable."

This is the first of an occasional series exploring the people and times of an alternate reality. In this world, the areas today known as northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula joined together as the Lake Superior Territory in 1848 and became the State of Superior in 1866. With vast mineral and timber reserves, legal gambling, but a sketchy economy, this state endures in a uniquely populist, inexplicable political environment. Feel free to make your own comparisons to three current Congressional districts receiving attention in this upcoming election -- MI-01, WI-07 and MN-08.

Tea Party darling sees lead shrink in Superior-02 congressional race

By Aaron Brownanen
The Duluth Steel Frigate and Capitol Report

Republican Luke Korpi's choice of words in his Oct. 11 debate with incumbent Democratic Rep. Earl Blochtar may have cost him his comfortable lead, according to a new poll.

Superior State University's Victor Power School of Political Science released results of a survey showing Korpi ahead 43 percent to Blochtar's 42, within the margin of error. Korpi has led the venerable Blochtar by double digits for more than five months.

In the recent debate, Korpi drew criticism for his use of the word "bohunks" to describe Blochtar's prodigious support in the state's storied eastern European civic group, the Bearhearts. While the word is considered an accepted noun and adjective among the descendants of Eastern European immigrants it is frowned upon when used by descendants of Finnish immigrants like Korpi.

Korpi surged into this race with support from the national Tea Party movement and the backing of the controversial Black Finn caucus of the Superior Republican Party early this year. He is the mayor of Gilbert, a popular gambling and vacation center, where he wrested control of the city government from the Red Finn caucus of the Superior Democratic-Miner-Lumberjack Party.

"Tensions between the Finns and Eastern Europeans had eased quite a bit but it doesn't take much to bring them back to the forefront," said Robert Zimmerman, political scientist with the Superior State polling outfit. "At least he didn't say anything about the Italians. That's how things really get out of hand around here."

The immigrant history of Superior plays heavily into this drama. Finnish immigrants were instrumental to the early labor and political organization of the state, seizing power from East Coast industrial syndicates in the early 1900s. However, since the presidency of Ronald Reagan, Finns have been divided between the Red -- early socialist or liberal Finnish organizers -- and the Black -- social and fiscal conservatives.

"The term 'Black Finn' comes from how early conservative Finns were considered the black sheep of their families," said Zimmerman. "The rest of the Finns are pretty much all Red."

Korpi and Blochtar both attempted to seize the narrative after the gaffe and recent polling numbers.

"This controversy is being manufactured by tired old liberals like my opponent and a media elite that would have us turn this state over to radical environmentalists," said Korpi. "The important thing is that we cut taxes and keep casino dogfighting legal."

Blochtar, an 18-year incumbent from the rail center of Proctor, wasn't letting up.

"This is the kind of divisive rhetoric that the people of Superior don't need," said Blochtar, flanked by leadership from the DML Red Finn and Bearheart caucuses. "This is not Lebanon. This is not Ireland. We can all work together to keep Superior great and the mining of cadmium from the bottom of Lake Superior clean and efficient."

Both candidates have been touring the state in long, tubular campaign buses composed entirely of state-subsidized wood products, though the comparative size of the competing vehicles remains in dispute.

Superior's other congressional district, SU-01, is largely contained within the capitol city of Duluth where Democratic incumbent Rep. Jodie Foster is widely expected to retain her seat against perennial candidate Ken Beuhler.

This is my column for the Sunday, Oct. 24, 2010 edition of Hibbing Daily Tribune.

The real tweet
By Aaron J. Brown

The internet is for narcissists. Narcissistic internet people told me this on their blogs, so I know it’s true. I’m smart like that. And I have a blog. But even as the internet goes, studies show that social media sites are the most narcissistic of all. It’s all about me (you). If I (you) are popular on the internet, I (you) will feel happy and loved (alone on the inside). These thoughts came to mind as I considered some tweets last week. You might know tweets as a message on Twitter, but those aren’t the only “tweets” I’m talking about (birds).

I must admit, sheepishly, that I only really figured out the Twitter earlier this year for the purpose of writing an essay about Twitter. That’s inexcusable in a hipster city, but I have the unique advantage of being one of few on the Range who acknowledges that there is a Twitter. I’ve been on the Facebook and the blogs for some time, but Twitter was something foreign to me, like Canadian football where the rules are almost the same, but not quite. The field is just a little bit bigger and everything is covered in gravy. Same thing for Twitter, where you have to know what “RT” and “#” mean just to understand what people are saying.

For the uninitiated Twitter is, loosely speaking, a social networking site but you aren’t expected to personally know the people you follow. Every tweet runs less than 140 characters, usually no more than a sentence or two. Its best function is sharing breaking news and having quick debates over politics, religion or insipid television shows. Rhetorical strategy for all three topics is remarkably similar, indeed alarmingly so.

My increased involvement in these sorts of online activities has taught me, however, that as this virtual world grows in size and influence it becomes more like real life, not a magical escape from it. Indeed, the flow of electrons like water over the smooth stones of a creek bed just reminds how poor a substitute for the natural universe the internet can sometimes be. Sometimes tweets are best left to the birds.

Case in point, the other day my oldest son and I rode to the lake down a long hill from our house. As I cracked the top of the mount, a flock of Canadian geese that had been resting on the shoreline launched with the singular sound of a mighty avian engine. The geese poured across the top of the water to the center of the lake, resting again as Henry and I watched from the grass.

The honking formation floated farther out and must have drawn too close to the lake’s resident pair of loons, who began trilling and flapping at the large interlopers. The tiny loons managed to scare most of the geese even farther across the lake until, without warning, a bald eagle soared above and began swooping at the entire collection of fowl, almost indiscriminately as if to see if anything was dead or dying and available for consumption. Afterward, one goose let out a mournful call for several minutes. I don’t know why. A chickadee had landed on the seat of my bike, calling out a chorus for the tragedy and/or comedy that had just occurred.

Unlike the internet, observing a bird drama like this is not all about me, the observer. In fact, the more an observer gets involved in an occurrence like this the more he taints it, twists it, alters the natural outcome. We stood silently, except for the sound of Henry casting rocks into the cold, autumn water. Later I tweeted the following: “Just saw geese tussle w/ loons, then EAGLE strikes. Honk! Chickadee offers Greek chorus. If birds could write plays, this is it. #birds”

I probably don’t have to tell you that this was a wholly inadequate way to describe these events. Even the thousands of characters I’ve used to write this column fail to describe a world that is much bigger than me, you or even all of us together. #life

Aaron J. Brown is an Iron Range writer and community college instructor. Read more at MinnesotaBrown.com or in his book “Overburden: Modern Life on the Iron Range.” You can follow him on Twitter, @minnesotabrown.

The Duluth News Tribune followed through with its endorsement of challenger Chip Cravaack over incumbent Jim Oberstar in the MN-08 congressional race. My tip proved accurate. What I wrote Thursday then still stands. In fact the tone of the editorial only seems to back up the notion that the rowdy first debate was being used as a political opportunity by the conservative Forum ownership who sponsored it.

And now for a very interesting week.

Tonight's second MN-08 debate between Rep. Jim Oberstar (D) and challenger Chip Cravaack (R) in Grand Rapids was a marked improvement over the first. A civil and well-run affair, this debate allowed Oberstar and Cravaack to detail -- albeit in shorthand -- the core principles of their campaigns. Moderators Patrick Marx, a journalist formerly of the Pioneer Press and Star Tribune, and Bill Hanna, editor of the Mesabi Daily News, led the candidates through a series of prepared and audience-generated questions. A capacity crowd of about 200 filled Davies Hall at Itasca Community College, along with another 300-400 online viewers at The Uptake. Hundreds more will watch and hear the debate in the next few days.

I'd say that hardcore supporters of either candidate got something they wanted out of this debate. Cravaack appeared energetic and well-spoken. He detailed what I'd describe as a boilerplate list of conservative positions on health care reform (favoring repeal and "starting over"), stimulus spending (against), and government spending generally (reduced). He started the night the more personable of the two candidates.

Oberstar was able to display his encyclopedic knowledge of northern Minnesota issues, history and statistics on several occasions. After a what I'd call a choppy start he was dishing out strong, passionate arguments for his votes on health care and the stimulus. He had the better closing statement by far, hearkening his Iron Range roots and his mantra of fairness for hard working people of the 8th District.

It was interesting to see the two discuss abortion policy. Both are pro-life, but Cravaack won the endorsement of the Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life when the group labeled health care reform as a pro-abortion law. Oberstar denied that the bill would do anything to fund abortions and that leaving children and the poor without health care was not a pro-life position. The degree to which these exchanges win pro-life votes really depends on the set of facts one chooses to prioritize.

I encourage you to check out the archived debate at The Uptake, which did a fantastic job covering the event, or in the replay on MPR's Midday on Monday, Oct. 25.

I have to admit that there were about 40 nonconsecutive minutes where I had to step away from the debate to read stories to my kids. One of the stories was "The Enormous Crocodile," a tale in which a large croc emerges from the swamp for the purpose of eating children. A series of attempts to gobble up children are foiled by jungle creatures appalled at the enormous crocodile's greed and horribleness. At the end of the story the elephant throws the crocodile into the sun, where his is sizzled up "like a sausage."

Something about this story synced up real nice with the debate, even if it distracted me from several important answers. Kind of like listening to "The Wall" while watching the Wizard of Oz." (Judy Garland is from Grand Rapids). I think truly undecided voters got a good view of the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates tonight. Partisans got some of what they wanted. I think the drama now begins to subside and we settle into what will still likely be an Oberstar victory, barring more bleeding from the DFL side.

It'd be a real good time to drop a new poll on this race, though. A real good time.

I spent the better part of a year trying to ramp down my political blogging. I was waxing poetic about the small joy of mist rising over the pits and the unknown possibilities that are ignored in the small towns and townships of the Iron Range. I thought I could weave a tapestry of wonder and joy that transcended the partisan bickering you had seen here and especially elsewhere on Minnesota's blogs over the years.

Nobody paid attention. And then MN-8's congressional race heated up and I'm sucked right back into the spin cycle. My traffic has quadrupled! Yesterday I took a jab at the Duluth News Tribune and the unruly crowd at the first MN-8 debate. I also "broke" the DNT endorsement, a claim I have since "frozen" because the DNT did not release its endorsement Friday. I would imagine that it is being held for the larger Sunday edition and results of tonight's debate in Grand Rapids. I've been bearish on newspaper endorsements in recent years, but regardless a DNT endorsement would appear to be a political coup for the Republican challenger.

Let Freedom Ring, a conservative blog, took issue with a couple of the more partisan assertions of my post. Namely, he implied that I was dismissing popular support for Cravaack's policies and that I suggested that there was a coordinated message effort on the GOP-side trying to boost Cravaack's standing. Most of the rest of the post was an argument that the terrible policy of cap-and-trade angered the crowd so much that, I don't know, what could you expect? They HAD to boo. So mad. Grrr.

And I don't doubt a lot of Cravaack's supporters DO hate cap-and-trade to the point of spitting. I know the mining companies oppose it, as do the power companies. However, not all miners are jumping to Cravaack's bandwagon as implied in the post. In fact, none of the Steelworkers locals jumped over to Cravaack, only a handful of individual miners who were probably conservative to begin with. Bear in mind, one of the advantages of being Jim Oberstar (until this year) is that his conservative social policy positions earned him conservative support that went Republican on nearly all other races. That may, indeed will likely evaporate this year, but it doesn't diminish Oberstar's support on labor issues, which is an equally big deal among miners.

The few dozen miners wearing "Dump Oberstar" hard hats to the debate are voting for Cravaack. A certain percentage of miners always vote Republican. Most miners vote Democratic and I'd bet they do again this year. Miners, and especially mine managers, reflect a tiny percentage of population in the 8th, actually, even if mining is a big part of the economy. The region, especially Duluth and the Range, has continually supported education funding, infrastructure and public health care options with as much fervor as mining. Not everyone, but a lot of folks. A working majority.

Indeed my problem with Let Freedom Ring's post is not his hit on me. I haven't written about policy as much as the horse race when it comes to politics this year. And I hate that. The reason is the same as what you see in the news media. It's easier to talk about the speed of horses than what's inside horses. This blog is part of how I spend my time, but only a small part. But the logical fallacies being propped up by LFR and other conservative blogs (If A=B, A=C, D and E) are just silly.

Jim Oberstar voted for cap-and-trade because he wanted to do something to slow carbon emissions in this country. The House bill wasn't going to be the final bill, and he was part of the negotiations to improve it. If you reject the notion that we need to reduce carbon emissions, then you reject his reasoning. If you reject climate change, you're already voting for Cravaack, aren't you? Energy costs are already rising. A discussion of how to run cleaner energy that is home grown and cheaper is a worthy task for Congress, despite the inevitable hyperbole. This does not mean the whole mining industry is abandoning Oberstar, or that Oberstar will impede mining projects in northern Minnesota. Quite the opposite, in fact, to the chagrin of many in the Democratic party.

Jim Oberstar voted for health care reform. The bill wasn't perfect. He tried to make it better. It is better than the status quo. Chip Cravaack would vote for repealing it back to the status quo, for thousands of northern Minnesotans without health insurance, running up taxpayer expenses on Medical Assistance and emergency care. There is a lot to dislike about the health care bill, mostly that it might not work as well as advertised. But it establishes an individual's right to basic medical care, with costs shared across the population. Fix what you want, but repeal is a draconian step that probably won't pass even with a GOP House.

Cap-and-trade is a political minefield that I'm surprised Oberstar walked through (and pleasantly so, as a person who'd like to see a long term plan to balance industry with conservation policy). I was proud that he found a way to balance his pro-life beliefs with a vote to expand access to health care for thousands of people in this district. But the words on the lips of the people I know who don't follow this garbage (and it is garbage, even this post) are not "cap-and-trade" or even "Obamacare." The words are jobs, economy and problems. People have problems. They feel empty inside because things aren't going as well as things used to go in this country, it seems. Some are Democrats and some are Republicans. Most are neither. Some have responded with a visceral, cultural backlash to Democrats and especially anything associated with President Obama. They are entitled, but not entitled to own a political debate through bullying. The problems in this country span back several administrations, involving players on both sides.

When I talked to Chip Cravaack last winter I wanted to know how he was going to reconcile his deficit- and debt-reduction rhetoric with the immovable objects of the military, Social Security and Medicare. He passed on that bait, saying that repealing health care, discretionary spending cuts and ending pork spending would suffice. It just won't. If you don't raise taxes, you've got to cut vast amounts of a budget that is mostly military spending, Social Security and Medicare. I've got opinions on all this, but I'm not running for congress.

Mr. Cravaack's position on this reality is what I'll be listening for, quietly, patiently, respectfully, when he speaks tonight at the debate. I'll also be listening for Mr. Oberstar to explain his reasoning, in his own words, to anyone confused about his positions by all the chum in the red waters. Let's all listen, shall we?

Tonight's 8th District Congressional debate begins at 7 p.m. It will be streamed live at The Uptake and at Debate Minnesota. It is slated to be rebroadcast later in a number of venues, including Minnesota Public Radio.

Tune in this Saturday morning from 10 a.m. to noon for 91.7 KAXE's weekly call-in and music program "Between You and Me." This week we'll be talking about cars, how they can be rigged to run under dire conditions, and funny or interesting car stories. This show has NPR's "Car Talk" as its lead-in, so it could be quite a morning for public radio-listening gear heads.

I'll be chiming in with a greatest hit, the story of my favorite car -- a bullet-riddled GM Cutlass Cruiser station wagon. You can hear the show from 10 to noon on Saturday on 91.7 FM in northern Minnesota or streaming online all over the world at www.kaxe.org.

And I need to remind you that if you aren't a member of KAXE they are in the final day of their fall fundraiser. KAXE always does a great job making its fundraisers, well, fun. This year they're doing "Nothing to be Afraid of" and the ongoing plot line involves zombies and more. Tune in for that, and to become a member of this great independent public radio resource, owned by its listeners, providing high quality programming unlike anything you'll hear on the radio. This station is a home base for many of my writing projects, so if you read this (free!) blog please consider supporting KAXE as well.

UPDATE: This news is on hold as the paper did not endorse today as sources were told. The debate tonight thus takes on even more significance. I apologize to readers for jumping the gun.
Well, the Duluth News Tribune's shamefully poor management of Tuesday's debate between Rep. Jim Oberstar and challenger Chip Cravaack now has new context. Today the DNT will endorse Cravaack, the first time its broken with Oberstar in decades.

Labor 2010 is organizing a press conference to respond at the Duluth Labor Temple (2002 London Road) at 11 a.m. this morning. Update: This event had been cancelled because the paper did not issue the endorsement today as sources were told they would. Stay tuned.

The endorsement itself is not a surprise to me. Forum Communications, the (relatively) new parent company of the DNT, usually endorses conservatives and must certainly smell opportunity in this year's 8th CD race. Cravaack is running the strongest campaign Oberstar has faced in a long time. What bothers me is the paper's unwillingness to own up to the sand job it performed at Tuesday's debate. While I don't think the debate was deliberately set up to make Oberstar look bad, the way that a crowd of Cravaack supporters were allowed to alter the entire discourse of the event through catcalls was uncalled for. There were Oberstar supporters who followed suit, but only after the tone of the event was established as a raucous debacle. The debate should have been stopped to remind the audience to let the candidates do the talking.

But what I think really happened was the moderators didn't know what to do, and when the result was an ugly mess that provided a slight advantage to Cravaack they knew that their paper was going to endorse Cravaack later. So they downplayed the tilt and behavior of the crowd, possibly out of fear, probably not knowing what else to do.

I know the behavior of that audience doesn't necessarily reflect Cravaack or most of his supporters. But please consider that anything resembling momentum for Cravaack here is based on his own' campaign's poll, which hasn't been corroborated by an independent pollster, a debate that was marred by booing, and that debate's sponsor newspaper then endorsing Cravaack.

I'm trying to be respectful of my friends on the other side of the aisle, but I've seen the message discipline among the conservative blogs on this race and am no longer willing to allow what is essentially highly effective public relations work set the narrative of the mood of the 8th District electorate. I'd hope that the winner of this race wins on popular argument alone. I am probably horribly naive, but a boy can dream.

Tonight, Oberstar and Cravaack will debate again at 7 p.m. at the Davies Hall on the campus of Itasca Community College in Grand Rapids. There were still some tickets available through the two major parties, so contact your candidate's campaign or the college for more information. There are some pretty serious policy differences between these two candidates and those candidates should be able to share and contrast those differences in a civil, public forum.

Another Iron Range political race worth watching on Nov. 2 is in Eveleth. City councilor Liz Kuoppala is running against Bob Vlaisavljevich in an open mayor's race. This is another instance where I know one candidate better than another, having interviewed and otherwise conversed with Kuoppala recently, not to mention our shared Cherry High School alumni status. All I know about Vlaisavljevich is that he is the former mayor. Nevertheless, this contest is one to watch despite my sprawling bias.
In this race one candidate (Kuoppala) is running on a platform of active local government, with a focus on issues like high speed internet and the revitalization of decaying downtown buildings. The other is running on a traditionalist platform based on the staid restoration of order and tranquility, to "fix the mess" in a nonspecific fashion. No one will be harmed either way. It's merely a referendum on objects in motion. Look back, or look forward?

I talked to Kuoppala recently and she told me how one resident at a doorstop in Eveleth was still conscious of Kuoppala's Finnish heritage and its potential liability in a run against Vlaisavljevich, who is obviously from the eastern European corner of Iron Range history.

This is an interesting throwback to when Finns were known as the instigators of the Iron Range and had many run-ins with strikebreakers from other ethnic neighborhoods. Being part-Finnish myself I can say there is a certain pride and self-assurance that comes with being from an ethnic background that always valued literacy and social action that would come across as smug to others.

I kid, I kid!

In truth, Kuoppala will treat the Italians, Serbs, Croatians and Slovenians with as much respect as the Finns, just as I'm sure Vlaisavljevich would do the same for the Finns. The bigger issue here is the generational and attitudinal battle. Vibrant, progressive communities find ways to elevate energetic young leaders. That's not to say everything Kuoppala would do is inherently right because she is somewhat young (in her 30s), but because we need a lot of people with passion and ideas to become civic leaders. There is an opportunity here to put a forward-thinking person into the Iron Range leadership mix and I hope the people of Eveleth take the chance.

But what do I know? I'm a Finn/Swede/Norwegian/Cornish/German/Irishman. Who trusts these blogs anyway?

U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar and his GOP challenger Chip Cravaack will take part in their second debate Friday night at 7 at the Davies Hall on the campus of Itasca Community College in Grand Rapids, Minnesota. This event will have limited seating, mostly dedicated to students.

One hopes this debate goes better than the one on Tuesday. The first MN-08 debate in a packed DECC auditorium was marked by almost constant heckling from the audience, which was dominated by Republican supporters of Cravaack. Oberstar's Democratic supporters responded in kind and the entire event, which was hard to hear on the tinny sound system, served almost no useful purpose whatsoever. Honestly, we should have just handed everyone tire irons and let them have it out. Northland's NewsCenter is going to air it on My9 Friday evening as well, which is fitting because it ought to fit the Jerry Springer programming niche quite well.

I knew there was going to be trouble as one of the moderators was running through the pre-debate rules. When he said "And we ask that you keeping cheering and booing to an absolute minimum, and no catcalls" he was actually booed and catcalled. This was before the candidates were even on stage.

Considering that Tuesday's debate was organized by the largest city newspaper and chamber of commerce in the entire district, and this one Friday is organized by a student group at a small community college, I'm sure everything will be orderly. No problems here, folks. Just democracy in action.

So ... we'll try again Friday night in Grand Rapids. Knuckles and clubs. No knives. No pistols.

Itasca County Sheriff

I know you have your own ridiculous local sheriff's race to worry about and, really, that's the point of me writing about mine. Here in Itasca County on the western Mesabi Range where I live, home to 1,000 of Minnesota's "10,000 lakes," we'll have a new sheriff in January. Current Sheriff Pat Medure is retiring and will be replaced either by the Deer River Police Chief Victor Williams or Sheriff's Department investigator Dean Scherf.

I did some political work for another candidate, Darin Shevich, who dropped out before the August primary for personal reasons. For this reason I've been exposed to the drama, DRAMA, of a county sheriff's race. Medure and a lot of the county higher-ups are backing Scherf. Several officials and leaders from surrounding towns are backing Williams. And ... blah blah blah.

The landscape of our scenic county is caked, CAKED, with yellow Scherf signs and blue Williams signs. And as a voter I know that the outcome matters, MATTERS A GREAT DEAL! But the amount of attention focused on this sheriff's race dwarfs anything seen in the county commissioner races, where funds for the actual multi-million dollar county budget will be allocated, including the sheriff's department budget. I can't even properly guess who's going to win those races because few people are even talking about them. There are more combined signs for the Itasca sheriff's race than all other races combined, including governor, Congress and houses that are for sale or sold.

Why is there so much attention on the sheriff's race when, in context, it's just not as important as many of the other races? Is it because, subconsciously, people want to drive drunk and get away with it because they had a sign supporting the sheriff? Or at least speed with impunity? No one will own up to that, but I say prove otherwise! And don't you dare lecture me about how much this all matters. I know how much it matters. I've seen the signs.

I know, OK!

By all means, tell me about the very important sheriff's race in your county.

This is part of a rolling series of analysis on off-the-map political races from the Iron Range region.

St. Louis County Commissioner - Dist. 6

I've written recently about the unique universe of St. Louis County politics. Today we look at one board of commissioners district, #6, that runs from the area just north of Duluth up to Virginia, Eveleth, Gilbert and Mt. Iron. It's a big area, dominated by Iron Range precincts. It's home to most of the region's taconite mines and one of the nation's largest peat bogs.

The incumbent in this commissioner race is Keith Nelson, who cruised in his last re-election race and again in this year's primary, but who's drawn some fire this time. His opponent is Lorrie Janatopoulus.

The Duluth News Tribune endorsed Janatopoulos last week. The editorial board's opening salvo:

Even if incumbent Commissioner Keith Nelson hadn’t brought global embarrassment to St. Louis County by stating, for all the world’s YouTube viewers to hear, that he’d support slavery if his constituents did, he wouldn’t be the candidate of choice this fall in the 6th District.

Even if Nelson hadn’t voted to raise his mileage reimbursement at more than 50 percent above the federal rate, voters would be left to think twice about his worthiness for re-election.

And even if Nelson hadn’t been so reluctant to hold accountable fellow commissioners who sexually harassed employees, he’d be facing, on Nov. 2, the very real and very deserved prospect of replacement.

Impressively qualified and well-prepared — and far and away the better option for Iron Range voters — is Lorrie Janatopoulos...

The editorial goes on to extol Lorrie's virtues, including a long career of public service and advocacy for issues facing low income Iron Rangers, battered women and people who are not well connected in any way. Lorrie had personal connections to the women and men who fought the hallmark class action sexual harassment lawsuit at the Eveleth Mines. She has found herself fighting for the disadvantaged against long odds time and again as project manager for the Arrowhead Economic Development Agency. She's a liberal, but not the kind who whines about problems. She's the kind who works on problems, even when losing is a genuine risk, alongside anyone willing to work on the same problems.

And that's all fine and good, very biased of me of course, because Lorrie is a friend. I met Lorrie in 1998 in the political run-up to that year's DFL governor's race. (This was the year Jesse Ventura won his single term as Minnesota's governor, so, you know, crazy year). Lorrie sat across from me at the DFL convention in St. Cloud as a fellow delegate from the SD-05 "Iron Range" delegation, where we were both pledged to then state Sen. Doug Johnson's gubernatorial candidacy. Knowing Lorrie's politics and mine, this may now be considered ironic. But we were both there for the cause of Iron Range nationalism, connected by varied threads to Tom Rukavina, the mining industry and the fine city of Eveleth. I'll never forget how Lorrie supported the 18-year-old version of me as I received my first lesson in Range political brow-beating and intimidation. I'll also remember the way she convinced a kid that didn't know any better that her relationship with her partner Sharon was as loving and socially relevant as anyone else's. Lorrie is tough, but nurturing. Kind, but unbending in the face of pressure. I can't think of a single reason she shouldn't be recognized by the voters for her past work on community issues and her future potential as a regional leader.

I can, however, see how she might be denied for the wrong reasons. This race, like most local races on the Range, will be determined by the number of people who go into the ballot booths and do the predictable, safe thing. Keith Nelson -- who I honestly don't have a strong opinion about -- is a living, breathing default. He's the kind of official that, if no one did anything or cared about much, would be elected 1,000 times over in township, city, school board and county offices across the Greater Mesabi. And ... about that. Starting 20 years ago that's exactly what's been going on around here.

And don't get me wrong, I'm sure Nelson is a helluva guy. He's a DFLer, just like Janatopoulos, so there's no party label dispute. I have many friends and family members who like Nelson. But there we go again. While a plodding county board attends meeting after meeting, poking at issues and protecting one another, a network of unrecognized leaders like Lorrie Janatopoulos have carved out small victories for real people, pushing for needed changes. The Iron Range of recent years has turned away such change. We can no longer afford to do so any more.

So, even though Lorrie faces long odds, I will be pulling for her on election night because this is, to some degree, a symbolic race in the heart of the Range. The reason I hope Lorrie wins is because even if she loses I know she'll get up the next day and keep fighting for people anyway. That's the spirit we need on the Iron Range: in small towns and struggling places all over the country, too.

The debate between Jim Oberstar and Chip Cravaack on Duluth News Tribune TV seems like a lively affair. The crowd had to be talked down from catcalling several times. The audio feed was weak and my rural satellite internet speed is not helping me this morning. I'll catch the full debate on television this Friday, the same day as another debate at Itasca Community College in Grand Rapids. Because of my day job, I generally don't go to community colleges on Friday nights unless there is a pit orchestra and people wearing stage makeup. From what I saw, that might have happened today in Duluth. I'll keep my social calendar open, which is probably implied.

Virginia, Minn., city operations director John Tourville was injured in a hunting accident by a member of the city council. I wasn't going to say anything, in deference to a bad situation, but the story is getting statewide play and it appears Tourville is going to be fine.

Tourville's successor as Hibbing city administrator famously earned criticism for brandishing a gun at work. It takes a special kind of toughness to be a city administrator on the Iron Range. They will shoot you, literally, and it will appear to be an accident.

With all the new attention heaped upon the Minnesota 8th Congressional District race between Rep. Jim Oberstar and Chip Cravaack, you might be interested a Tuesday morning debate between the two candidates.

The showdown is Tuesday at 8 a.m. You know, "the debate hour." Everybody's fresh. Should be good.

The Duluth News Tribune debate is sponsored by St. Luke's and the Duluth Chamber of Commerce. You can watch it live on "DNTV," whatever that is. I assume it's a feed on their website.

This is a big opportunity for Cravaack to close the gap among independents and wavering Democrats and for Oberstar to shut down Cravaack's challenge. There is also an equal or greater chance that this debate won't change much. Make sure your coffee mug is full before you dive into this thing. I'll try to watch and comment on Tuesday.

I posted a two part analysis of this race last week.

Politics in Minnesota recently sniffed around the theory the Iron Range could see increased political power after this year's election. The Briana Bierschbach story most specifically explores the possibility of State Rep. and House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-Chisholm) becoming Speaker after the departure of Margaret Anderson Kelliher.

I'm quoted within, but my most predominant opinion about this story -- really, rather the idea of the story -- is let's take this one step at a time. About six contingencies have to play out just right for this scenario to happen. Let the world spin. Rumors of an Iron Range supremacy movement are greatly exaggerated, as are rumors that the Range political structure is organized. You have shifting alliances on key local issues, some that are benign and others that tick me off, but that's about it.

First things first, I had an exchange with Tony the other day and he's knocking doors locally in his district against an up-and-coming Republican with a well-known Hibbing name, Paul Jacobson. I don't think Tony's in any significant danger, nor are most Range incumbents, and his new signs are sprouting up around Hibbing and Chisholm neighborhoods. Nevertheless, this isn't a year to take anything for granted and Tony's working the campaign trail up north and around the state for fellow DFLers.

I can tell you there are a lot of stereotypes about Iron Range politics that are right most of the time. Indeed, that's the nature of stereotypes. However, it's a mistake to label Tony as just another Iron Range legislator. He's in the nerdy technocrat caucus along with me and .... well, I'm sure there must be others. Somewhere. Probably online right now.

My column for today's Oct. 17, 2010 edition of the Hibbing Daily Tribune is an expanded version of a post I wrote here last week and rewrote for MinnPost a few days later called "The Minnesota Twins and the Meaning of Life." I could repost the whole thing today, but instead I'll ask that you go back and read the post and the repost and ask yourself, "What on earth could he add to this to flesh out a column that is 125 words longer than this?" The answer is left to the ages, behind the pay wall of the HDT website and in the future archives of the Hibbing Public Library microfilm machine. I hope you know how to use that thing, and how to get the regulars to let you have a turn.

The Saturday, Oct. 16, episode of "Between You and Me" on 91.7 KAXE joins with this unique independent station's fall fundraiser topic of "Nothing to Be Afraid Of." This week some special guests will join host Heidi Holtan in studio to talk about the fears, and ultimately the hopes of the people of northern Minnesota.

I'll be joining the conversation LIVE this week. No prerecorded essay. No net. I'm in this. And I don't even know what's going to happen! I think that's worth tuning in from 10 a.m. to noon on 91.7 FM in northern Minnesota or streaming live all over the world at www.kaxe.org.

I know the very concept of public radio fundraisers are a turnoff for most listeners. KAXE turns that all around with a full 9 days of highly entertaining special programming for its fundraisers. This week's efforts will deal with fear. I wonder if any frightful (hilarious) occurrences shall transpire!

I grew up along the train tracks that ran parallel to Highway 7 in Zim, Minnesota, and then just up the road next to the tracks that fed Eveleth Taconite. Every day of my life on the Iron Range I've heard, seen or at least crossed the tracks of trains carrying iron ore, coal, paper from up north or grain from the west. Though I'm sure all kinds of freight moves through the area, I've only seen iron ore, coal, wood products, mining equipment or nondescript DM&IR freight cars.

Last Sunday the family and I drove to Duluth and stopped at the tracks on Highway 37 east of Iron and south of Eveleth, my old stomping grounds. So what the heck is in these double-decker Chinese freight containers? Where did it come from and where is it going?


There were a ton of interesting company names on this Canadian National train. Some were obviously Canadian, but there were a lot of Chinese words as well. I missed some of the more interesting designs.

Anyway, there are more efficient ways to get this information, but I'm going to treat this like birding and learn through constant observation. I've never seen one of these birds (trains) before. I wonder what this means to the larger ecosystem (global economy).

I also noted that there was very little graffiti or girls' phone numbers on these cars. Classy. Welcome to the future.

This is Part 2 of my post analyzing the 2010 showdown between Rep. Jim Oberstar and Chip Cravaack in northeastern Minnesota's Eighth Congressional District. (Read Part 1).

Long term, both political parties -- indeed, leaders of all stripes -- need to consider the impact of inevitable, ongoing demographic change to northern Minnesota. This region's unique character and history have kept Minnesota's DFL stronghold Eighth District from becoming more like the "rustic swings" of northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, but won't forever. Indeed, that transition is happening presently, as observed by one conservative writer Rosslyn Smith from the American Thinker:

(Minnesota's Eighth CD is) a sprawling, rural district where the New Deal Democrats who first elected the incumbents have died off in droves, private-sector union jobs have declined, and young people often have to leave the area to find work after high school. At the same time, there's been an an influx of more affluent new residents, not to the district's small cities, but to the resort hamlets.

Smith is right about this trend. I wrote on the same topic here earlier this year after a discussion with state demographer Tom Gillaspy. Now, it would unwise for Republicans to assume that MN-08 will become a GOP fortress as part of these trends and equally unwise for Democrats to dismiss them, which is what I'm seeing from the writing on both sides.

Think Brainerd.

Northern Minnesota's congressional district will become more like "Brainerd 2010" and less like "Iron Range 1986." Range towns will lose population. Duluth will gain a little. The townships around them will gain a lot. The Range and Duluth will remain blue, maybe a little less robustly, and other areas will be tossups or some version of red. This equals a MN-08 that could go either way depending on the economy, national trends, local issues or, most importantly, the quality of the candidate.

Thirty-six years is a long time, but Jim Oberstar made it 36 years because he fits this district like a glove. He's smart, sometimes long-winded, but holds an encyclopedic knowledge of local industry, politics and history that has served him and his constituents well. On the other hand, Chip Cravaack is a tailor-made fit for the Twin Cities exurbs in the southern part of the district. He's got military cred, private industry connections and a skilled trade union background as an airline pilot. In a vacuum, this is a pretty good match up.

Cravaack has hit Oberstar largely on three issues, government spending, his support of health care reform and his vote for cap-and-trade legislation, all of which Cravaack says put Oberstar out of touch with his constituents. Oberstar supporters contend that no one seems to mind driving on the roads once the government spent the money on them, that health care reform may have been messy to watch, but still necessary. Some of Oberstar's pro-life supporters have been told that the bill pays for abortions, which it doesn't, and which was a sticking point in getting Oberstar's vote in the first place. Notably, the Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life pulled their endorsement of Oberstar over this yesterday, which is unfortunate for Oberstar who did a lot of difficult work with the MCCL as a pro-life Democrat. Nevertheless, spending and abortion are fairly muddy, boiler-plate GOP attacks, good for mileage in MN-08, but not guaranteed to work.

As for cap-and-trade, well, if you hate cap-and-trade there's no way that vote is going to look good. But practically, the House cap-and-trade bill was always going to be a first draft not a final draft and no bill that stopped mining in northern Minnesota, coal country or out West was ever going to win Oberstar's vote or pass into law. The issue is trying to cut carbon emissions and it's a tough balance between the environment and industry. Will this one issue, combined with traditional Republican arguments of fiscal restraint and (largely rhetorical) resistance to public health care cause one in five MN-08 voters to switch from a known quantity to an lesser known new candidate? That's unlikely. Not impossible, but surely unlikely, even in a wave election.

The reason Oberstar has enjoyed and will likely continue to enjoy a major advantage in this race is the picture at right. This is Oberstar as a kid outside his family's home in Chisholm when he was growing up in a much more challenging time on the Iron Range. MN-08, especially the Range, remains distrustful of people who fail to understand the district's history and cultural quirks, which is why candidates ideologically similar to Cravaack (Rod Grams, for instance) have failed in the past. Even though Oberstar has spent many years in D.C., has a house in Maryland and is now a Beltway veteran of transportation and infrastructure policy, a lot of people are willing to forget all that because they know, first hand, he gets the common struggle facing people on the Iron Range.

The degree to which Cravaack erodes that support is the degree to which he A) proves otherwise about Oberstar, and B) proves that he, Chip Cravaack, also understands why the ranges went out on strike, the meaning of the location towns, and why so many here remain as distrustful of big business as they'll ever be of big government. In truth, many voters in the 8th continue to regard Oberstar as something close to a relative, someone you vote with out of loyalty. These will probably offset the voters who are angry about specific Oberstar votes or policies.

To his credit, Cravaack has made efforts to understand the Range. He called me last winter and we had a nice chat. He's worked really hard and has raised GOP excitement. If the southern part of the district had its own election, Cravaack might win. But St. Louis County is included in this election. Jim Oberstar is chair of the transportation committee. Oberstar also checks in with people throughout the district to find out what's going on. I've had great conversations with him over the years. The longest one was when I was editor of the Hibbing newspaper in 2002. The first one was when I was 8 years old and he took my rather unimportant family on an impromptu 90-minute tour of the Capitol when we were in D.C. They were both good talks, but very different.

Really, it breaks down fairly simply. Partisan Republicans automatically vote for Cravaack. Partisan Democrats vote for Oberstar. Some independent conservatives who voted for Oberstar in the past switch to Cravaack. Independent liberals have no reason to switch from Oberstar. The moderate wild cards break both ways. A whole lot of people stroll into the polls and stick with Oberstar. I am biased but, striving for as much objectivity as I can, my prediction is as follows. Cravaack will close the gap by a few points and earn credibility as a future candidate, but Oberstar wins this round. I actually see the 42 percent for Cravaack in his poll being about right, maybe 43. Oberstar's numbers are above 55 percent, closer to 60. If I'm wrong it's a sign from above that I really should become a Whig. I expect to remain a Farmer Laborite with an independent streak.

Like many of you, I'll be watching and learning much about the changing nature of Minnesota's Eighth Congressional District on election night. What happens Nov. 2 is only the beginning, no matter who you're cheering for.

Jim Oberstar's website

Chip Cravaack's website

NOTES: There were several items I couldn't squeeze into this tome and thought of later. In no particular order:

• I didn't say much negative about Oberstar or Cravaack. Most people reading this have their own opinions. Oberstar's obvious negatives are his 36 years in office without much of a challenge in an anti-incumbent year. Cravaack could be considered a cookie-cutter conservative, one that could be dropped into any congressional district and run a similar campaign. These are offsetting penalties. Third and long for Craavack.
• This election will be an interesting addition to the "sign debate" going on in political circles. One of the things Cravaack supporters point to is the massive amount of signs touting their candidate posted all over the district. Indeed, there are a lot more GOP/Cravaack signs in public right-of-ways than I've ever seen before. Republican households that used to post presidential or governor signs only are now including the Cravaack signs. And there are a handful of new yards featuring Cravaack signs. Meantime, Democrats are consciously downplaying the use of signs in their campaign, focusing on other campaign methods. The founders of the Facebook group "Signs Don't Win Elections" will have a lot riding on Nov. 2.
• On that topic, if you see a 2-ton pile of manure in a hayfield somewhere it means that someone put two tons of manure in a hayfield, not that a particular candidate will be elected to Congress. If that candidate is elected to Congress, the opposition should not assume that four tons of manure in an adjacent hayfield will solve the problem.
• If you are a GOPer ask yourself what you'd think if Jim Oberstar started riding around in something called a "Peace Wagon." What would you say? What would your top bloggers tweet about? Why is it then OK for Cravaack to ride around in something called a "War Wagon." A war wagon better have a machine gun turret and be prepared to use it. If so, we'd properly ask why does a congressional candidate need an armed vehicle? If not, it just represents an appeal to the base nature of hyper-nationalists.
• I didn't talk about Cravaack's tea party backing because that is so "old narrative." The tea party will go down as the Vanilla Ice of political trends. That's not to discount the fact that Vanilla Ice sold a lot of records in his time.
  

The Duluth News Tribune reports that Lake Superior iron ore shipments have returned to pre-recession levels. Another complicating statistic that shows how northern Minnesota's resource economy operates on a different timetable than the national economy. This is good news for the national economy ... eventually. Probably not by Nov. 2, however.

For 60 years northeastern Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District has stood as one of the nation’s most fascinating political anomalies. Granted, until this year a majority of the MN-08 contests in this period have been fairly boring DFL routs, except of course for a couple high-drama DFL primaries. Even this year’s well-publicized bout between longtime DFL incumbent Jim Oberstar and GOP challenger Chip Cravaack is unlikely to deliver the upset Republicans are hoping for (more on this later). But the district is changing and Democrats and Republicans alike would be wise to learn the history and demographic transition going on here to prepare for what could be a string of very competitive elections starting in 2012 or soon after.

Conservative columnist Michael Barone recalled in a recent piece about the Oberstar-Cravaack race how MN-08 was the only district to switch from Republican to Democratic in the post-war GOP landslide of 1946. In other words, MN-08 was then going through political changes independent of national trends, and that phenomenon has continued largely unabated through the baby boom, Vietnam, the Reagan years until the present. This district has been as socially conservative and economically liberal as one can imagine without entering the realm of fantasy. This is Franklin Roosevelt country. And even in its Republican years before the Great Depression, the Eighth was Teddy Roosevelt country. Always populist. Never conventional.

Of course the DFLer who pulled off that surprise win in ’46 was Chisholm’s John Blatnik, who served 13 terms before Oberstar, one of his top aides and fellow Chisholmite, succeeded him, both in Congress and eventually as the Democrats’ House leader on transportation and infrastructure issues. The Blatnik/Oberstar tandem have delivered an amazing amount of highway, rail and infrastructure development into this mostly rural northern Minnesota district, making cities like Duluth and region’s like the Iron Range far more modern than they otherwise would be. The flip side of this fact is that Blatnik and Oberstar together have represented the district longer than most residents of MN-08 have been alive, and that’s no small feat in this graying domain. Oberstar's opponent is making an argument about the political entrenchment of the incumbent.

Much has been made of a Cravaack internal poll by Public Opinion Strategies showing Cravaack within three points of Oberstar (45-42). DFLers have pointed out that the poll's methodology is dubious. With a sample size of about 300 in a district with a lot of demographic and regional variety it's highly unlikely that this poll can be taken as a true forecast of the Nov. 2 outcome.

That said, if a poll is released and one or both sides change their strategy as a result, it's something to watch. This poll has thrust the race into the headlines and minds of the political elite on both sides, which is what Cravaack wanted and got. Complaining about the poll is no longer helpful, as there will surely be other polls released before the election showing a closer than expected outcome. Why? Well, for one it's a hard district to poll correctly. Also, the poll and surge strategy seems to draw attention, doesn't it? The real problem is the way polls are covered in the news, not polls themselves. Godawful polls have been a part of northern Minnesota elections for a long time. As a graduate assistant I was once tasked with a polling operation in which the college basketball and hockey teams was hired to randomly call people in the Duluth phone book about their voting preferences. Everyone, even the hockey players, knew that there were scads of problems with the poll, but it did make the news.

Let's skip over the polling question, and move the real one. Is the Eighth District changing?

Yes, it is.

For more on this, and my analysis and prediction for this year's Oberstar vs. Cravaack showdown, come back for Part 2 of this post tomorrow at 2 p.m.

PART TWO

The Iron Range Maidens, our region's first organized flat track roller derby team, has unveiled its new merchandise store. Players are selling the shirts, hats and coats directly and you can contact someone through the website. They are using the proceeds to cover the team's expenses. If you decide to buy, try contacting "Butterscotch Bitch" first. She's my radio producer! This is the world I now inhabit.

And you can bet that you'll be hearing more about this roller derby team in the future.

Tuffy's Bar and Grill on First Avenue in Hibbing closed last night, according to reports I've heard around town. I called to confirm and there is no answer today during normal hours. I've heard the same talk from many different sources, so I'm going to lean toward believing that this subtly iconic Range luke warm-spot is indeed no more. This is sad news.

On one hand, Tuffy's is a fairly typical main street Iron Range bar. You walk in you see the long bar on one side, a few tall table islands with stools, a few small tables, and a pool table in the back. What made it interesting is that its typical brawler bar decor was accompanied by a fairly awesome short order kitchen in the back. "Tuffy Burgers" were a dietary staple for many in Hibbing, including a lot of downtown workers. When I worked at the Hibbing Daily Tribune a block up First, Tuffy burgers were the office treat of choice.

What's to say about a good burger? You know what I'm talking about. Juicy, real beef patties served with no bragging and no pretension. The bar looks like a biker dive and, indeed, might have been one at night, but by day it served beer and burgers to a cross section of Iron Range humanity. My favorite memory is when my wife and I went to Tuffy's for lunch with some old friends from the newspaper. She was very pregnant at the time. I'll always remember turning around from talking to someone and seeing her smiling at the Tuffy's bar, in a family way.

Good burgers. Total lack of self-awareness or showmanship. This is a modern rarity. The Iron Range still has plenty of places to get a burger or have a beer. But something about losing Tuffy's hits home. This is where the locals went.

The synagogue where Bob Dylan and his family attended services when Bob was growing up on Minnesota's Iron Range is for sale again. The former Agudath Achim Synagogue in Hibbing has been remodeled into a residential home but key attributes remain from its time as the site of young Robert Zimmerman's bar mitzvah, including the star of David stained glass windows and a kosher kitchen set-up. The building has changed hands a couple times, but I know at least one of the post-synagogue owners had a bird-filled menagerie in the middle of the big open space. Not sure if that's still true.

It's a common misconception that Dylan grew up in the only Jewish household in a post-bloom mining town. In truth, the Iron Range of the early- to mid-20th century had a fairly active Jewish community that accompanied the region's broad ethnic diversity. Educated Jewish children, mostly of shopkeeping families, left with all the other educated children of miners to form strong communities all over the country in the later 20th century. Unfortunately, the Jewish communities on the Range were too small to sustain the losses, especially as businesses closed through the '60s, and the congregations dissolved. The B'nai Abraham synagogue remains in Virginia, Minn., but it's too small to sustain the quorum needed for services. The Iron Range was and remains an interesting cultural study, just like Bob Dylan.

(Hibbing synagogue story source: Duluth News Tribune)