Range Wars in tomorrow's DFL county unit conventions

County unit conventions are taking place all over Minnesota in the DFL and Republican parties. The only matter of statewide significance is who the Democrats will endorse in the U.S. Senate race to oppose Norm Coleman, Al Franken or Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Both have agreed to abide by the party's endorsement. One of the most important regions in that statewide race is on my native Iron Range, where a treasure-trove of DFL delegates will be allocated tomorrow at the Senate District 5 and Itasca County DFL conventions, respectively. Though the actual human population of these units is far lower than many metro-area units, SD 05 carries something like 26 delegates (It might have changed from when I lived over on that side) and Itasca, my current home unit, carries 12 because of the Iron Range's reliable, almost unbelievable DFL voting record. (We're talking 65 percent DFL in a bad year, 85 percent in a good year).

I am the DFL Precinct Chair in Balsam Township and will be a county delegate at tomorrow Itasca DFL convention in Nashwauk. I was a former board of directors member in SD05 back when I lived in Hibbing. I will make this prediction. If Al Franken does well in tomorrow's conventions, we're looking at a first ballot endorsement. Itasca County has a huge Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer following because of the strength of the Progressive Caucus there. I expect my convention to split roughly down the middle. But if Franken pulls out a majority at SD05 in nearby Hibbing, with its delegate count exceeding that of three suburban cities, I see no way that Nelson-Pallmeyer breaks the requisite 40 percent at the state convention to forestall a first ballot Franken endorsement. Mike Ciresi was going to get a dozen delegates in SD05 and maybe one or two out of Itasca. He's out now. His folks will determine how tomorrow's results turns out. Franken has held such an advantage in pledged delegates so far that Nelson-Pallmeyer needs to carry huge numbers.

I'll report in tomorrow evening with news of the Itasca and SD05 conventions. Franken and Nelson-Pallmeyer will both be there, shuttling between the working class Range towns of Nashwauk and Hibbing. It may come down to who's blue work shirt looks less new. (Less new being preferable).

Super Tuesday on the Iron Range

Nothing knocks over a mountain in one night. But when you combine wind and water and the correct amount of time, the mountain is destined to fall. That's how I feel about the status of my Democratic party this morning. Barack Obama was down by a million a few months ago and now he's running even. He didn't knock down the mountain of the Clinton organization and name recognition last night, but he showed that the future of our party is going a new direction and that change will come. I only hope we have enough time to make that change happen in 2008.

Obama won more states and may draw even in the delegate count before Tuesday's aftermath is fully calculated. He's got some good states for him in the next week, and then he has the monumental task of beating Clinton in Ohio, Texas or Pennsylvania in the weeks that follow. Can he do this? Yes, but not easily or without the support of new voters. He also needs to close the gender gap and swing upward 10 points among Hispanics. All difficult tasks; all doable.

I'll let the national pundits discuss that issue, however. I am left amazed at what happened in Northern Minnesota and the Iron Range last night.

I live in Balsam Township, a tiny rural outpost northwest of Hibbing. We had a handful in 2004 show up to caucuses, 12 in 2006. Last night we had 28 ballots cast. That's unbelievable if you know the township. But more surprising was the outcome. Obama 21, Clinton 6, Uncommitted 1.
Balsam may be small, but I think it's a good bellwether for the unique DFL bastion on the Iron Range. Our township is a mix of labor, socially conservative economic liberals, hippie transplants and pro-gun folks. And Obama swamped it, in numbers similar to what happened across the Iron Range. The only big Range town that went for Clinton (that I know of today) was Hibbing, which was the heart of Clinton's northern Minnesota organization. Virtually all the Edwards folks I know went to Obama.

Meantime, we took a nonbinding straw poll for the U.S. Senate race. THIS shows a much more interesting dynamic. Remember, Balsam is the "Missouri" of northern Minnesota. It's a swing precinct that shows trends in both parties. The DFL caucus came up with this result for the Senate race: Al Franken 12, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer 10, Mike Ciresi 6, Uncommitted, 3. (The ballot totals are different because we let two guests who showed up at the wrong precinct vote in this nonbinding poll).

In other words, my earlier assertion that the Range is split three ways seems to be correct. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer will win more delegates than one would expect in northern Minnesota. AND, Mike Ciresi is not catching on here. A good ground game by Franken could neutralize the Nelson-Pallmeyer factor before the convention.

What does this mean for the rest of the state? Well, the Iron Range is the conservative edge of the DFL's winning coalition. Obama can win here. Franken and Nelson-Pallmeyer are splitting progressives, but Franken has the edge because statewide he's in a fight with Ciresi.

This post was also published at www.mnblue.com, a state political blog with a grassroots readership.