Late to the party; my take on Madia

It's Ashwin Madia blog day on Minnesota's progressive blogs and I apologize that I am posting so late. I guess someone has to take the night shift.

Ashwin Madia is a candidate for Minnesota's Third Congressional District. He is the Democrat facing off against Republican Eric Paulsen for an open seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.). Madia boasts an interesting biography compared with Paulsen's much more conventional rise to his party's nomination. Madia is the son of Indian immigrants who would go on to become student body president at the U of Minnesota and join the Marines after finishing law school. As a Marine he would serve in Iraq and return both respectful of the troops in action and in doubt of the foreign policy engaged by the Bush Administration.

What's interesting to me, however, is the development of Madia's political sensibilities. Madia, in 2000, was an active supporter of John McCain in his bid for the presidency against then Texas Gov. George W. Bush. This year he is running for Congress as a Democrat on the ticket with Barack Obama. This is a big change, but not as big as you would imagine.

OK, so right now I'm going to admit something deep down that might frighten and confuse people who think I'm just another DFL repeater blog. In 2000, I told some friends and my wife that I was going to vote for John McCain if he beat Bush. I was serious. I was a Democrat then, but disappointed with the campaign of then V.P. Al Gore and impressed with McCain's balance of fiscal moderation and bipartisan appeal. I saw then what I see now, an increasingly partisan American government that wasn't going to get any better unless we elected someone capable of working across the aisle. For me then, as with Madia, the man was McCain.

So why then is Madia now a Democrat and me solidly opposed to McCain's 2008 candidacy and supportive of a relatively unknown (Madia-esc?) candidate, Barack Obama? Well, the matter is judgment. Since 2000, McCain has taken positions and votes that have increasingly solidified his standing as an ultra-conservative to win over the Bush voters he lost back then. He has endorsed and still advocates a war that has distracted us from the global calling to end terrorism we faced after 9/11. And he continues to imply that the only solution is a policy that would encourage endless war. Madia, despite the pressure he no doubt felt to stay true to his 2000 convictions, used his experience in the Marines, hardly a liberal organization, to come to a reasoned and intelligent position on U.S. foreign policy that reflects the true hope of America in the 21st century, a future in which the U.S. spreads democratic values through strength and diplomacy. For this reason, along with his positions on fixing our economy, Madia is someone worthy of consideration for the office he seeks.

If you're so inclined, participate in the waning hours of Ashwin Madia blog day. He's the kind of person we need representing Minnesota and our country next year. He may not be an Iron Ranger, but he's the son of immigrants seeking a better future for us all. That's how we roll up here.

Cummins endorsed as Oberstar's GOP opponent

Pine County energy efficiency consultant Mike Cummins was endorsed by the 8th District Republican Party for his run against U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar (DFL-Chisholm).

A source familiar with the proceedings inside the convention tells me the response from many rank-and-file 8th CD GOPers is underwhelming. A movement to draft a Republican mayor from the district's southern half was unsuccessful. Cummins will file this week for the office.

With just under four months to start and build a campaign against Jim Oberstar, Cummins certainly has his work cut out for him. He gave me the first interview of his campaign last week. He struck a different tone from most Republican candidates with talk about conservation and the limited use of alternative energy sources, but in comments on this blog and over the weekend has adopted a more traditional slate of GOP positions.

Cummins announces run for Congress against Oberstar

Mike Cummins, a Pine City home efficiency developer, called me Friday night to confirm that he'll be seeking the GOP endorsement for the Eighth Congressional District seat held by Jim Oberstar.

Cummins was gone most of the week touring a solar array in Canada as part of his job in helping people make their homes more energy efficient. This bears mentioning because energy policy topped his list of issues during our conversation.

"I'm fed up with the way things in Washington are done," said Cummins. "We have four dollar gas and no one is doing anything."

Though Cummins was restrained in embracing a full transition to alternative energy sources, he cited them as one part of the solution, hearkening a position quite similar to Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

In an interesting twist, Cummins used former Sen. Paul Wellstone as an example of the kind of leadership he says he plans to offer.

"We lost a great senator in Paul Wellstone six years ago because what he said around the kitchen table was the same thing he said in public," said Cummins. "He was honest. I hardly ever agreed with him, but I appreciated the honesty. That’s the kind of representative I want to be. That’s what you’ll get with me. What I say around the kitchen table is what I’ll say in office."

That's was a large part of Cummins focus in our conversation. He's different than the status quo.

"If people want another two years with Mr. Oberstar, that’s fine, but my message is going to get out," said Cummins. "There’s more to politics than what we’ve had. I've talked to plenty of people who want all the incumbents out. They want a fresh start. Whether it's energy or health care, people are looking for leadership."

Cummins will seek the GOP endorsement Saturday in McGregor. If endorsed, he plans to meet with party officials next week to plan a campaign. More detailed policy plans will be released then.

ANALYSIS: Cummins strikes a different tone than the straight-up traditional conservative issue tack of former Sen. Rod Grams in his failed bid two years ago. He sounded sincere, but it's also the position many Republicans are taking in what appears to be a difficult year for their party. As a political unknown facing the Chair of the House Transportation Committee, Cummins faces an enormous challenge just in getting noticed. It's striking how late his campaign is starting. Every other serious Congressional challenger in the country is already actively running. Still, he was nice to talk to, and if all the Republicans in the world understood the role of conservation in our energy policy we'd actually be close to solving the problem. At this time, I remain unconvinced that his candidacy will shake up the race the way the GOP had boldly predicted.

As always, I will keep following the state of political races like this in northern Minnesota.

SOURCE: Cummins to challenge Oberstar

A reader named "Scoop" says this weekend Republicans will endorse Mike Cummins for the Eighth Congressional District seat held by the venerable U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar (DFL-Chisholm). I have not had much luck learning more about Mr. Cummins, but will keep trying. I'm sure we will know the whole story in coming days. Oberstar's opponent faces the daunting task of running against the Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee who has held this seat since 1974.

Oberstar's opponent?

There may be some news today about Rep. Jim Oberstar's Republican opponent this fall. An anonymous tip came in that I am checking out. Remember, the Eight CD GOP declared that their candidate this year had to remain unnamed this spring while he/she/it weighed the benefits of running. But we were told that this candidate was (I'm paraphrasing) totally awesome, like a ninja combined with an astronaut combined with a super smart robot ninja from space.

I don't get a robot ninja astronaut vibe off the name I'm checking, but I could be wrong.

Oberstar awaits nameless opponent in 2008

U.S. Rep Jim Oberstar (D-MN8) is the longest serving member of Congress from Minnesota. He's a socially conservative, economically liberal DFLer in a socially conservative, economically liberal district that is the size of a New England state and where campaign news is still most widely spread by word of mouth. He's an Iron Ranger in a district traditionally influenced by the Iron Range. And he chairs the committee that determines who gets highway funding, which is one of the biggest known vote-winning issues known to modern politics. So every two years we have an election so that both parties can briefly pretend as though the outcome isn't assured.

The Republicans have tried many different approaches to their Quixotic dilemma in MN8 in recent years. They've tried running a cowboy. (Literally, he was a cowboy). They've tried running an earnest small town attorney. They've tried running former U.S. Senators. The outcome is Oberstar winning by somewhere between 32-42 percentage points. Rod Grams (the former U.S. Senator who once carried the district in his 1994 Senate campaign) actually only did one percentage point better in 2006 than Mark Groettum, the relatively unknown small town attorney, did in 2004.

So we're waiting to find out who the Republicans run in 2008 against Oberstar. I know that it's not Grams or Groettum (or, for that matter, "Cowboy Bob" Lemen, the 2000 and 2002 nominee). MNPublius has an amusing post about the Republican press release announcing their newest nameless candidate. Again, he or she is literally nameless. They didn't include the person's name in the press release.

Minnesota could lose Congressional seat in 2012

For Minnesota political junkies, this is an old assumption. Our slow population growth in Minnesota could cause us to lose a Congressional seat after the 2010 census. This would mean a contentious redistricting battle that puts increased importance on who controls the legislature and governor's office in coming years, especially after the 2010 election.

For the hyper attuned, means this year's presidential race will have a domino effect on whether it's Republicans or Democrats who lose a Congressional seat in 2012. New presidents generally cause their party to lose seats in Congress during their first midterm, which has a similar effect on state legislatures. Thus, if we have a Democrat in office after 2008, DFLers might face the loss of the State House and/or Senate in 2010. Or, if a Republican is elected president, the opposite might occur. Perhaps that's too much spice in the gumbo, as conventional trends have been changing lately. Naturally, Democrats will have a chance of keeping the works if they do fairly in the 2008 election and manage to win something, anything, under the Pawlenty administration.

OK, blah blah, back to the prospect of losing a seat. The question is whether the northern Minnesota seats are combined creating a massive northern district that runs about 50/50 DFL/Republican. That would be the GOP preference. The Republicans would also like to see St. Paul's 4th and Minneapolis's 5th districts combined, consolidating DFL strongholds and creating more conservative suburban districts. The DFL would like to see the suburbs mixed with solid DFL zones to give them more leverage in the fastest growing parts of the state. In truth, there are fewer and fewer good ways to divide the state as well over half our population lives in a crazy donut shaped area around St. Paul and Minneapolis.

State could lose House seat after 2010, estimates show

Minnesota's population is growing, but not as much as many other states.
The result may be seven congressional districts in 2012.

By NINA PETERSEN-PERLMAN
Star Tribune, December 28, 2007

WASHINGTON - The latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that Minnesota could lose a congressional seat in 2010.

Minnesota is still gaining population, but barely. Meanwhile, Sun Belt states such as Florida continue to grow rapidly, staking a claim on increased representation in Congress.

Although the current estimates show Minnesota on the cusp of losing a seat, its fate won't be decided until the Census Bureau releases hard numbers from its 2010 survey late that year. State demographer Tom Gillaspy said Washington and Minnesota have virtually identical populations.

"If you extrapolate last year's growth rate out to 2010 it's basically a dead heat between Minnesota and Washington," Gillaspy said. "It still looks like we're just below the cutoff point, but it looks pretty close. It's certainly within the margin of error of estimates."