Cummins endorsed as Oberstar's GOP opponent

Pine County energy efficiency consultant Mike Cummins was endorsed by the 8th District Republican Party for his run against U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar (DFL-Chisholm).

A source familiar with the proceedings inside the convention tells me the response from many rank-and-file 8th CD GOPers is underwhelming. A movement to draft a Republican mayor from the district's southern half was unsuccessful. Cummins will file this week for the office.

With just under four months to start and build a campaign against Jim Oberstar, Cummins certainly has his work cut out for him. He gave me the first interview of his campaign last week. He struck a different tone from most Republican candidates with talk about conservation and the limited use of alternative energy sources, but in comments on this blog and over the weekend has adopted a more traditional slate of GOP positions.

Cummins announces run for Congress against Oberstar

Mike Cummins, a Pine City home efficiency developer, called me Friday night to confirm that he'll be seeking the GOP endorsement for the Eighth Congressional District seat held by Jim Oberstar.

Cummins was gone most of the week touring a solar array in Canada as part of his job in helping people make their homes more energy efficient. This bears mentioning because energy policy topped his list of issues during our conversation.

"I'm fed up with the way things in Washington are done," said Cummins. "We have four dollar gas and no one is doing anything."

Though Cummins was restrained in embracing a full transition to alternative energy sources, he cited them as one part of the solution, hearkening a position quite similar to Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

In an interesting twist, Cummins used former Sen. Paul Wellstone as an example of the kind of leadership he says he plans to offer.

"We lost a great senator in Paul Wellstone six years ago because what he said around the kitchen table was the same thing he said in public," said Cummins. "He was honest. I hardly ever agreed with him, but I appreciated the honesty. That’s the kind of representative I want to be. That’s what you’ll get with me. What I say around the kitchen table is what I’ll say in office."

That's was a large part of Cummins focus in our conversation. He's different than the status quo.

"If people want another two years with Mr. Oberstar, that’s fine, but my message is going to get out," said Cummins. "There’s more to politics than what we’ve had. I've talked to plenty of people who want all the incumbents out. They want a fresh start. Whether it's energy or health care, people are looking for leadership."

Cummins will seek the GOP endorsement Saturday in McGregor. If endorsed, he plans to meet with party officials next week to plan a campaign. More detailed policy plans will be released then.

ANALYSIS: Cummins strikes a different tone than the straight-up traditional conservative issue tack of former Sen. Rod Grams in his failed bid two years ago. He sounded sincere, but it's also the position many Republicans are taking in what appears to be a difficult year for their party. As a political unknown facing the Chair of the House Transportation Committee, Cummins faces an enormous challenge just in getting noticed. It's striking how late his campaign is starting. Every other serious Congressional challenger in the country is already actively running. Still, he was nice to talk to, and if all the Republicans in the world understood the role of conservation in our energy policy we'd actually be close to solving the problem. At this time, I remain unconvinced that his candidacy will shake up the race the way the GOP had boldly predicted.

As always, I will keep following the state of political races like this in northern Minnesota.

More on the northern GOP's Congressional conundrum

The 8th CD Republicans meet this weekend in McGregor to endorse a candidate for Congress. A source has told me that a Pine County man named Mike Cummins will be nominated for that endorsement, but that there remains discontent within GOP circles for the long delay in finding a candidate and the relative obscurity of the candidate being offered.

The word from this original source is that GOP regulars are shopping for an alternative, someone with any kind of elected experience. But if such a person hasn't stepped forward yet it seems unlikely they would now.

I have a call into Mr. Cummins, who has been out of town, and hope to find out more soon.

Lack of consensus in GOP pick for 8th CD

Last night I reported that a source told me Mike Cummins is a leading contender for the GOP endorsement and nomination for the Eighth Congressional District seat held by Jim Oberstar. But this is news to some top Republicans in the district, according to another anonymous source. (Incidentally, my proclivity for anonymous sources here is why we still need a vigorous Fourth Estate to follow up on leads like this. Though I love what I do here, it is not my day job and I can't do background checks on people who contact me electronically).

Indeed, not many in the GOP party structure have any clue who the eventual candidate will be, other than that they've all been assured there will be a Republican candidate for Congress in the Eighth. Apparently, though, Duluth and Range Republicans are cautioning that there may not be an unanimous endorsement for this seat as my first source suspected. Stay tuned.

SOURCE: Cummins to challenge Oberstar

A reader named "Scoop" says this weekend Republicans will endorse Mike Cummins for the Eighth Congressional District seat held by the venerable U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar (DFL-Chisholm). I have not had much luck learning more about Mr. Cummins, but will keep trying. I'm sure we will know the whole story in coming days. Oberstar's opponent faces the daunting task of running against the Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee who has held this seat since 1974.

Oberstar's opponent?

There may be some news today about Rep. Jim Oberstar's Republican opponent this fall. An anonymous tip came in that I am checking out. Remember, the Eight CD GOP declared that their candidate this year had to remain unnamed this spring while he/she/it weighed the benefits of running. But we were told that this candidate was (I'm paraphrasing) totally awesome, like a ninja combined with an astronaut combined with a super smart robot ninja from space.

I don't get a robot ninja astronaut vibe off the name I'm checking, but I could be wrong.

MinnPost: Oberstar doesn't rule out Cabinet position if Obama wins

MinnPost has an intriguing story about veteran Minnesota Congressmen Colin Peterson and Jim Oberstar. Peterson ruled out serving in an Obama Cabinet, but Oberstar left the door open just a tiny little bit.

Now, I agree with comments made on a post I wrote about this last month. Oberstar won't leave his chairmanship of the House Transportation Committee for nothing. But if, quietly, he were assured that light rail would go all the way to Chisholm and cement trucks would be running up Highway 53 around the clock for the rest of his natural life, Oberstar might be convinced to take a different role in national transportation policy. It could be one of the most important Cabinet positions in an Obama administration.

And, as I've pointed out, it would open a Congressional seat that hasn't seen a competitive primary or general election since the advent of personal computers. Here's an earlier look at potential candidates. I'm probably missing some names, but that's a snapshot of the back bench in this district.

Fightin' Eighth's back bench is deep

Yesterday I gave you my list of potential DFL candidates to consider in the event that Democrats take the White House and longtime Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN8) is offered the position of Secretary of Transportation. As I said, this is not necessarily likely, but worth thinking about in the event that it happens. After all, the last time we were able to have a conversation like this was 1974. And by "we" I mean "not me" because I was not yet born, conceived or even a remote thought at that point in history.

Here are the odds I am putting on the people I listed:

First tier: "Conventional Wisdom" candidates

Tony Sertich, 3-1

Inside DFL circles it is usually assumed that Sertich would be a well-positioned candidate for the Eighth District spot if it should open. House Majority Leader, four terms in the State House representing the Iron Range, and an increasing statewide media profile, Sertich is indeed best positioned today.

Pros: Strong communicator, name recognition, legislative skill, Iron Range credentials, would enjoy great institutional support and a strong chance at most of the big labor endorsements, can raise the money.

Cons: Most of his experience is in government and, while he's always lived in Chisholm he has usually worked in St. Paul. He would have some work to do in Duluth and the southern part of the district. Also, the seat has been held by a Chisholm resident for six decades. Many DFLers are looking for some geographic diversity. (You know, maybe Buhl or Kinney this time?)

X-Factor: Getting hitched this summer. What does future Mrs. Sertich think of Congress? I also see Sertich as a viable candidate for Lt. Gov. in 2010 or other statewide office in the future. Maybe he waits.

Tom Bakk, 7-1

He's the Senate Tax Chair and union business manager who recently announced he's exploring a 2010 run for governor.

Pros: Well connected, can run with business and labor, seems smart, can raise the money, showed leadership during Senate caucus battle five years ago.

Cons: Not well known off the Range, only OK on TV from what I've seen, long winded (not that it ever bothered Oberstar), and as tax chair he's had to take votes and do things that could be used in negative ads.

X-Factor: Does he really want Congress? He seems pretty serious about governor in 2010.

Don Ness, 8-1

Ness, Duluth's new mayor and former city councilor, also used to be Jim Oberstar's longtime campaign manager. Many have long observed that this is the catbird's seat to winning the district since Duluth is the largest city and primary media market for most of the voters. But I place Don lower because he has been saying that he's not interested in running, indeed promising he wouldn't run during his campaign for mayor last year.

Pros: Media savvy, strong campaigner and community organizer, Oberstar connection, hails from the district's largest city, can raise the money.

Cons: Promised not to run, mired in budget battle in Duluth, most of his experience is in government, while he ages chronologically he does not seem to age physically.

X-Factor: I keep him on the list because if Oberstar asks him to run or if there's a lack of strong candidates he has the ability to jump in and be competitive right away. He's a family man, though, and he seems to want to stay close to Duluth.

Tom Rukavina, 9-1

Rukavina is the voice of the Iron Range. Well known in ever corner of the Range, Rukavina is the outspoken, sometimes controversial, but lovable representative of our people. If elected, C-SPAN becomes "Must See TV."

Pros: All of that, and he's been an effective legislator in both the majority and minority, entertaining and smart.

Cons: His "out of context quote"file would make for some of the most entertaining, but devastating, negative ads, greatly misunderstood off the Range.

X-Factor: Rukavina has a touch for connecting with people from every walk of life and in a multi-candidate election could stage a unique campaign through every bar, union hall and event in the district to a surprise win.

But here's the thing. These may be the conventional wisdom frontrunners, but I contend that there is a 50/50 chance that the actual nominee may come from the list below or from somewhere completely off my radar.

The (not so) dark horses

Jeff Anderson, 10-1
I know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy who says he has a plan in place to get Anderson elected to this very seat. Anderson, a city councilor in Duluth, has some name recognition from his appearances on the top rated Duluth morning radio show on KQDS where he works as an ad rep. Born and raised in Ely, he moved to Duluth where he built his career. I can't stress enough the importance of reaching across the many constituencies of the massive Eighth district. Anderson has Range roots, Duluth ties, a good start. The perfect candidate would have ties to the Range, Duluth and Isanti County, but such a creature may be mythical.

Liz Kuoppola, 12-1
Liz is an Eveleth City Councilor and recently had success co-organizing the Go Run conference to encourage more women to be involved in northern Minnesota politics. In my scanning of suggestions for candidates, I was surprised that she was the only woman on the list. I've talked to Liz and find her to be a smart, driven person who could contend for this seat. While the 8th is not known as a bastion for feminism, there is a large portion of the DFL base that is looking for a woman who can change the dynamic. Liz has already won a council seat in the town that was home to the landmark Eveleth Mines class action sexual harassment suit, so she's earned her seat at the table. In a multi-candidate field, with a strong organization, Kuoppola could surprise people.

Tony Lourey, 15-1
Freshman State Senator and son of liberal stalwart Becky Lourey, Tony Lourey could find a seam if he gathers progressive support once commanded by his mom. He lives in the center of the district south of Cloquet which is a great place to be from in a proposed race like this. He needs to sharpen up his TV presence and build bridges to the Range if he's interested in the seat.

Jeremy Kalin, 18-1
Kalin is a freshman state representative from a swing district in the fast-growing southern portion of the 8th. I've met him; he's a nice guy, but has a lot of work to do to play on the Range. He's on the list because I think he's got the ambition to try it.

Tony Cuneo, 20-1
Another newly elected city councilor from Duluth, I only know Cuneo from his happy TV ads last fall. He's photogenic and the composition of his ads tell me he could be a guy with ambitions beyond city council. I heard on the news he runs rental properties. I need to know more.

Jerry Janezich, 20-1
Eight years ago he would be the presumptive nominee. In 2000 he was the DFL endorsed candidate for U.S. Senate. A former state senator and co-owner of Tom and Jerry's bar in Chisholm, Janezich lost that race to Mark Dayton. Now he's been out of office and lobbying for MNSCU. He's capable, and at one time Congress was his ambition, but it's hard to say now. As Tony Sertich's political mentor, it's unlikely he would run if Tony ran. But if Tony took a pass and there was a big field of candidates, you could see Jerry jump in and take a shot at his dream.

Harry Welty, 40-1
Welty is sometimes referred to as a gadfly, but I've read his stuff and think he's more than that. A former Duluth School Board member, he has recently gained attention for his protests of an expensive school facilities plan. He's run for this seat as a Republican, Independent and Unity candidate, but recently announced his switch to the Democratic party. He's a long shot but this might be his last, best shot at gaining the relevance he probably deserves.

And then there are the Republicans. I don't get invited to many GOP strategy sessions these days, but here are my three suggested candidates for this seat should it open after the new administration takes office.

Rod Grams: A former U.S. Senator, he'd normally be considered a lock for this nomination. However, his drubbing by Jim Oberstar in 2006 knocked off his armor. Grams famously carried the 8th in 1994 during a strong Republican year in his Senate campaign. He is a safe candidate for Republicans, but not a lock.

Larry Howes: A longtime State Representative from Walker, Howes lives in the center of the Eighth. He is one of the few GOP elected officials who is endorsed regularly by labor unions, including Education Minnesota. In an open campaign he'd might strike gold against a weak opponent.

Chuck Marohn: Off the radar, Chuck is a consultant who comments occasionally on KAXE's political programs in northern Minnesota. Well spoken and reasonable, he'd be an interesting choice for the GOP in what might be its only opportunity to gain a foothold in the district.

Well there you have it.

I really want Obama to win and Oberstar to take SecTrans if only to justify the length of this post and the amount of time I've spent on this topic. Anyway, it's good for any political party to have its options known as we chart unknown waters. What do you think?

UPDATE: Spelling corrected on Chuck Marohn; must have remembered it wrong.

On deck in the Fightin' Eighth

Recently I posed the question: "Who might succeed Jim Oberstar if he moves up to Secretary of Transportation in a hypothetical Democratic Administration?" It's a question full of logistical problems, including the need for Democrats to win the election, Jim Oberstar to be offered the job and Jim Oberstar to take the job.

Overall, people seem to have settled into two schools of thought. First, many believe he wouldn't consider the job because House Transportation Chair under a Democratic administration would actually have more power. That could well be true. But Oberstar remains a logical candidate for the job, so let's keep up with the super fun speculation that keeps blogs like this going.

Here are the names from the DFL bench, people who might one day be Minnesota 8th CD contenders or pretenders. The first group is people mentioned in the comments here, at MNBlue or in a linked post at MNPublius:

• Tony Sertich (House Majority Leader, State Representative from the Iron Range since 2000)
• Don Ness (Mayor of Duluth, former Oberstar campaign chair)
• Tom Bakk (State Senator from Cook, Tax Committee chair, potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate)
• Tom Rukavina (State Rep. from Virginia, longtime outspoken voice for the Iron Range to the outside world).
• Jeff Anderson (a newly-elected DFL at-large city councilor in Duluth)
• Liz Kuoppola (a city councilor from Eveleth who was instrumental in the organization of the Go Run conference this spring encouraging hundreds of Iron Range women to run for office or join the political process)
  

That's a good group. Here is a group I am adding for good measure, because I actually live in the district and see some of the undercurrents:

• Tony Lourey (freshman State Senator from south of Cloquet, son of liberal stalwart Becky Lourey)
• Tony Cuneo (also a newly elected DFL city councilor in Duluth)
• Jeremy Kalin (freshman State Rep. from swing district in fast-growing southern part of 8th CD)
• Jerry Janezich (former State Sen. and DFL U.S. Senate endorsee and current MNSCU lobbyist who desperately wanted to go to Congress back before it was realized that Jim Oberstar was made of titanium).
• Harry Welty (former Republican, Unity and Independent candidate for this seat, he recently switched parties to DFL; a former Duluth School Board member who has made a name as the outspoken leader of a group opposing an expensive school facilities plan in Duluth).
  

SO, WHO'S THE FAVORITE?

You'll have to come back and find out tomorrow. (Forgive me, I'm finishing my book; I need to stretch this). My analysis may surprise you. I'll talk about Republican options, too.

Mulling a Post-Oberstar World

According to an item in MinnPost, U.S. Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) is strongly suggesting that if Barack Obama wins the presidential election this fall that he nominate Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.) to be Secretary of Transportation. Oberstar is the longtime ranking Democrat and chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

Oberstar has represented Minnesota's Eighth Congressional District since 1974. This district includes Oberstar's native Iron Range, Duluth, the whole Northeastern corner of the state, a large portion of the eastern midsection and the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. It's a vast, DFL-leaning, but volatile district that Oberstar has dominated electorally as a governing liberal and social conservative. He's been doing this so long that even the hint that he might take another job leaves huge questions about who could step up to take his place.

Now, before we get crazy, let's consider a few disclaimers. First, Rahall is vice-chair of Oberstar's
committee and stands to gain a lot if Oberstar moves up to SecTrans. Secondly, every time there is a presidential election there is talk that if the Democrats win Oberstar might be transportation secretary. This kind of speculation is aided greatly by actual victory. Third, Oberstar would have to consider whether taking a job in the executive branch is worth abandoning his high powered committee chairmanship. He might not be interested.

That said, being Secretary of Transportation would be the ultimate feather in the cap for Oberstar, 73, whose career in the House has spanned 34 years. If offered, he'd have to consider it and might take the job. If he did, we'd see a free for all on both sides of the aisle to replace him.

Here is the situation facing any candidate in that situation.

1) It would be a special election held after, if Obama wins, what would have been a strong Democratic year. That means the Democrats have to switch from offense to defense, where we should expect a little rust after 8 years of yelling "no blood for oil" at poetry slams. Also, special elections have different voting patterns that are harder to predict. This mix of factors will make the race unpredictable. The more candidates and money, the more unpredictable it would become.

2) The 8th goes 65-35 for Oberstar because of Oberstar, not necessarily because it's liberal. Famously, Rod Grams carried the district in 1994 against Ann Wynia. Yes, it's solid DFL, but the wrong candidate makes it a toss up.

3) This seat is usually considered to be the "Iron Range/Duluth" seat, but the district's population base has shifted to the south. This area, and its potential candidate(s) will be a big factor in any endorsement/primary situation.

4) Oberstar will want to be comfortable with his successor.

5) Oberstar dominates, in part, because he can always point to specific transportation projects that he delivered to the district and state. Everyone loves roads. What will be the next candidate(s) hook as they make their pitch for votes? Remember, the winner becomes #435 in House seniority, which means an office in the janitor's closet and a chief of staff who couldn't get a job with the other 434 members.

6) Most insiders know that Minnesota will probably lose a Congressional district in 2012 after the 2010 census. This means that if someone succeeds Oberstar before '12, they may face a tough situation if their district is combined with that of an entrenched incumbent or ideologically differing voters.

So, MinnesotaBrown and MNBlue contributors? Who do you see waiting in the wings in this big district? I have names in mind, but I want to know what you think. I'll share my thoughts in a follow-up after I hear your suggestions.

Aaron Brown runs MinnesotaBrown and occasionally shares posts with the MNBlue community.

Oberstar gears up for campaign today

The Eighth Congressional District DFL Convention opens today in Duluth. I'll be covering the convention from the audience of Hibbing Community College Theatre's production of "Born Yesterday" (tonight at 7:30 with a Sunday matinee!) via my cell phone that will be switched off. I expect my coverage of the convention to be among the worst ever. Call me when Oberstar retires. Meantime, he's not retiring. He's in great health, chairs transportation and his Republican opponent remains theoretical.

PRESS RELEASE: Oberstar to Kick Off 2008 Campaign in Duluth
DULUTH – The longest winning streak in the history of Minnesota politics continues. Congressman Jim Oberstar (DFL-Chisholm) will kick off his 2008 Congressional reelection campaign on Saturday, May 3. Oberstar, seeking his 18th term, will be joined by supporters in the Lyric Room at Porters Restaurant in Duluth at 9:45 a.m. to launch the 2008 campaign. Immediately following this event, Oberstar will attend the 8th District DFL convention, where he will seek his party’s endorsement.

Oberstar awaits nameless opponent in 2008

U.S. Rep Jim Oberstar (D-MN8) is the longest serving member of Congress from Minnesota. He's a socially conservative, economically liberal DFLer in a socially conservative, economically liberal district that is the size of a New England state and where campaign news is still most widely spread by word of mouth. He's an Iron Ranger in a district traditionally influenced by the Iron Range. And he chairs the committee that determines who gets highway funding, which is one of the biggest known vote-winning issues known to modern politics. So every two years we have an election so that both parties can briefly pretend as though the outcome isn't assured.

The Republicans have tried many different approaches to their Quixotic dilemma in MN8 in recent years. They've tried running a cowboy. (Literally, he was a cowboy). They've tried running an earnest small town attorney. They've tried running former U.S. Senators. The outcome is Oberstar winning by somewhere between 32-42 percentage points. Rod Grams (the former U.S. Senator who once carried the district in his 1994 Senate campaign) actually only did one percentage point better in 2006 than Mark Groettum, the relatively unknown small town attorney, did in 2004.

So we're waiting to find out who the Republicans run in 2008 against Oberstar. I know that it's not Grams or Groettum (or, for that matter, "Cowboy Bob" Lemen, the 2000 and 2002 nominee). MNPublius has an amusing post about the Republican press release announcing their newest nameless candidate. Again, he or she is literally nameless. They didn't include the person's name in the press release.