So, no Jesse this year. One poll shows an Al Franken lead, another shows Norm Coleman well ahead. So this Minnesota U.S. Senate race is just wacky. Not, uber-wacky, but a regular sort of smooth drinking wacky. And so we continue...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Manageable U.S. Senate race wackiness
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
The Ventura watch
A reader heard Jesse Ventura on (N)PR today and tells me he sounds exactly like a candidate. I hate to be the one to say it, but he's a legitimate threat to win this race. Fiscal conservative. Anti-war. Perpetually angry. It's getting to be an angry year.
It would play out like this. At first, Ventura would siphon polling numbers away from my guy Al Franken. Everyone would get all hot and bothered and say that Franken is road meat and that Sen. Norm Coleman's real challenger is Ventura. At the debates, Jesse gets in Norm's grill and everyone, including Republicans, realize that Norm isn't especially likable. So then Norm's numbers dive and you've got a 30/30/30 poll taken the week before the election. Anyone could win in that situation. Franken's people might want to draw up a contingency plan that involves a bump draft behind an insurgent Ventura for a come-from-behind win. Remember Humphrey's folly!
UPDATE: ABC is reporting that Ventura implied he was running during the interview, which was apparently on National Public Radio.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Two perspectives on an Iron Range Wal-Mart protest
There are two ways to look at the front page of the Sunday Hibbing Daily Tribune, which features a Jeff Warner story and photo ("Union workers protest Wal-Mart; Al Franken visits to show support").
A) This was a great cover story and photo for Al Franken. The picture features Franken speaking to a group of picketers outside the Hibbing Wal-Mart at a protest over the retail giant's decision to hire non-union labor to do a major renovation project at the store. Franken looks like a leader and his comments in the story cement his position as the labor candidate in a strongly labor community like Hibbing. Wal-Mart's corporate office comes across as rather crass, pretending as though they are hiring non-union labor because they're "more qualified" when it's plain to see that this was a financial decision for them. This was a net positive for Franken and the point is valid: the community would be better off if big companies like Wal-Mart supported union employers who paid union wages and benefits.
But then there's the more difficult other side of the story:
B) I didn't honk when I saw the picket line earlier that day, even though I usually honk at every picket line I see. The reason was because I thought it would be hypocritical of me to honk when I was actually driving into the Wal-Mart parking lot.
We don't do all our shopping at Wal-Mart, but we do some. And even if I had honked and driven somewhere else to pay more for the particular product we were buying, I would be doing so for purely political reasons. The vast legions of apolitical, cost-conscious shoppers would still enter the parking lot and buy from Wal-Mart. And that's the flip side to this story. Protests like these bring attention to the important issues of consumer choices and labor standards, but they fail to change anything. Wal-Mart flicks stories like this off its massive shoulder and presses on with its global plan.
The challenge for labor unions in the 21st century is to connect with those people driving into the Wal-Mart parking lot, especially the Wal-Mart employees barred from organizing. I know people who work there and they seem to resent displays like this because they are divisive and, anyway, they know that people will continue to shop there, sometimes late at night when they think no one will see them.
And yes, I know I risk a dressing down from the purists who never, ever set foot in the Wal-Mart, but most of you know that I'm speaking of a hard truth. In a small town where a Wal-Mart has carved out a major share of the retail economy, you don't have many choices on some products. And as poor as Wal-Mart's labor record is, they hire more local people than Amazon.com which is where many of the so-called labor purists (and, again, me) do our shopping for books, DVDs and "modern" goods that aren't available at the mom and pop stores. If you're boycotting Wal-Mart for political reasons, you may as well boycott Target, Amazon and everywhere that uses the same model of keeping costs low. And you better be able to afford a 20 percent hike in your family's expenses, on top of rising food and gas prices.
Al Franken and the local unions are right about this issue. Wal-Mart would have been much more helpful to the community by sticking with the proven union labor that hires local people. But Franken, if and when elected, and the unions also have a hard path ahead of them in accomplishing the kind of fair economic system they want while allowing private industry to remain competitive in the 21st century economy. This is not a simple problem and will require a modern labor movement similar in scope to that of 100 years ago, tailored to the iPod generation.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Corrections to Franken parade post
Please note the corrections to the Al Franken Iron Range parade post from earlier in the day. My bad.
Franken to appear on Iron Range for 4th of July, RE-UPDATED
UPDATE x2: For real this time! After a great amount of confusion, Franken's Range parade schedule is finally in my hands.
July 3 (today): Al joins the picket line at a labor protest outside the Hibbing Wal-Mart. I have been seeing this picket line the last few days and will be posting about it at another date. Then, between 6-7:30 p.m., Al is in Aurora and Gilbert for pre-Fourth festivities. The Gilbert parade in particular is a special Range tradition, mostly because of Gilbert's status as the one-time booze capital of the Iron Range.
July 4: Al Franken is in Eveleth at 9:30. Eveleth is another of the classic Iron Range parades. Then, at noon, Al is in Nashwauk as originally reported (with the wrong time) here. After that, Al goes south. HOWEVER, Team Franken is working the Keewatin parade (which is at 2) and other Northern town parades. So if you have a parade in your town and want to walk with Team Franken, just look for the DFL signs.
My apologies for the mistakes in earlier posts on this topic. I am reminded of my old newspaper days: the fastest way to get attention is to print inaccurate information.
Politically, Franken is wise to include the Iron Range on his Fourth of July swing. Yes, the Range is considered a DFL stronghold, but we have plenty of swing voters who left the area for suburbs and exurbs. They come home for Thanksgiving, Christmas, Fishing Opener and Fourth of July (the only of the four open to political campaigning).
Ironically, the Browns spend Fourth of July near Duluth, but that's a story for another time.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
The Carlson Question
Grace Kelly over at MNBlue is discussing the possibility of former moderate Republican Gov. Arne Carlson jumping into Minnesota's U.S. Senate race either as an independent or as a DFLer. What a world! What a world! The theory is based on some push polling that was done that included Arne's name as a DFL candidate. We don't know if his name was used because of legitimate buzz about a campaign or if it was used as a "baseline" because of his large, but dispassionate, popularity in the state.
It's hard to see any scenario where Coleman gets less than 35-40 percent of the vote, which is roughly equal to Al Franken's base as well. The reason Coleman has the advantage is his lead among moderate GOPers and right-leaning independents who crossed over for Amy Klobuchar and might cross over for Barack Obama, but who have yet to warm to Franken. It's hard to say whether Carlson would help or hurt Franken's cause or eat into the GOP base. And Jesse Ventura is still mulling a run, too, which would probably hurt Franken more than Coleman.
I still like Al Franken, but his road to the Senate will be very unlike that of traditional Democratic challengers this cycle.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Ventura giving Senate run a strong look; chaos is coming
Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura may likely run for the U.S. Senate this year, according to longtime adviser and briefly appointed U.S. Sen. Dean Barkley.
If Ventura does run, take all your conventional wisdom about the Franken vs. Coleman race and throw it out. I don't know that Ventura has a chance to actually win (it depends on how Coleman and Franken react to his candidacy). But he will take in a large number of disaffected Republicans, Democrats and independents in the disgruntled nooks and crannies of the political spectrum. He pulls 15 percent easy, with a ceiling around 40 (which could win).
But I'm betting that some lessons were learned after Ventura's surprise election as governor in 1998. Coleman and Franken will do a better job in keeping their bases than Coleman and Humphrey did that year. If it's all about the base, then Franken has a good chance. Polls show more self-identified Democrats in Minnesota than Republicans. And a lot of the veneer has worn off Ventura's act since 1998. He has shown some capability in politics, but has also taken far too many opportunities to make a buck when the cameras are pointed at him. And there is just no way I can see this guy stomaching six whole years in the United States Senate ... not without some kind of high profile incident.
Still, as this whole discussions shows, Minnesota remains an independent-minded state.
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Franken/Coleman a dead heat
Old news, perhaps, but yesterday Rasmussen released numbers on the Minnesota Senate race. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken 48-45, within the margin of error and largely unchanged from the previous poll. But check out these demographic breakouts:
Moderates:
Coleman - 32%
Franken - 56%
Age 18-29:
Coleman - 35%
Franken - 65%
This year may well be decided by turnout and the presidential race. Rasmussen shows a 15 point lead for Obama, which will help Franken, and I imagine this is a race where moderates and young people turn out in enormous numbers. This seems like a straight-up tie to me, given the bad press Franken has had in recent weeks.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Long, hot summer
Just as in the rest of my life, I deal with multiple audiences on this blog. Some folks come here for politics. Some come here to see what's up on the Iron Range. Some come here because they read my columns or listen to my radio essays. And some come here because they googled "moonshine" or "aaron brown moonshine."
I realize that writing for multiple audiences like this means that not everyone gets what they want all the time. So, I'll warn the non-political readers of the blog that the summer will be pretty full of political posts. And, in case you haven't noticed, I am active in the Democratic party. Independent minded, I think, but affiliated with the DFL. That doesn't mean I hold a personal grudge against Republicans or that I can't listen to alternative views, it's just where I am. Feel free to offer your opinions in the comments.
On that topic, coming up this week is a piece from an exclusive Range-focused interview with potential gubernatorial candidate Tom Bakk that I conducted yesterday afternoon. I say exclusive because, while Bakk has done a couple interviews with other big Minnesota blogs, this is his first discussion focused on his home turf with an interviewer whose been through the Doug Johnson '98 and Jerry Janezich '00 campaigns. It will take me a day to get that together. In short, Bakk is very serious about his exploration of this run.
I'm also working on setting up an interview with Al Franken for later this month and will continue to talk to any candidates interested in sharing their views with my small but oddly loyal readership.
I will keep my eyes peeled for other, less political, stories as well. I hope to look into this magnetization business exploring the recycling of our Iron Range mine dumps for low-grade iron particles. Don't worry, it's much more exciting than it sounds.
Oh, and, did I mention? The book is done. It's all over but the line editing. Not that you care, necessarily, but it means I might actually read this stuff before I put it on the blog.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Franken tours Minnesota today, including Grand Rapids stop
DFL endorsed U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken tours Minnesota today, including a stop at Brewed Awakenings in Grand Rapids at 5 p.m. I am working with the campaign on getting an interview with Franken for this blog. Unfortunately, I have business in Hibbing today and can't get over to Rapids. But if you're in the neighborhood, stop in. Franken is great at these meet and greets and it will be interesting to see what his message is after the controversies of the past weeks and his commanding, indeed surprisingly fast, first ballot endorsement at last weekend's DFL convention.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Franken endorsed on first ballot; I was at the dump
DFL delegates endorsed Al Franken on the first ballot in Rochester moments ago. I heard the results on MPR just as I was getting back from taking diapers to the dump in my rural Iron Range township. Later I am going to grill some stuff.
The lesson learned? Well, first, we've got to potty train these kids. Holy cow!
Second, Franken's well-publicized "baggage" regarding his prior work in comedy is going to be a problem, but like Obama's Wright connections it can be handled if dealt with honestly and clearly. What is most important is to make sure Minnesotans are focusing on issues this election, instead of parsing every word of Al's greatest and least greatest hits. The fact that MPR commentators would suggest that Norm Coleman would do best if this ended up as a "character" debate is unbelievable. Everybody knows why it's unbelievable. The only difference is that Al's jokes, made up jokes that weren't designed to reflect his political vision, are public information.
This won't be easy for Democrats, but it will be worth it. I have come to the conclusion that while Franken's negatives can be stoked by out-of-context quotes, Al is at his best when actually working with people and delivering his message on the campaign trail. He also has the funding base to match Coleman on the airwaves. Al will have to earn this one, but I think he's capable.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Franken weathers bad month like freight train full of rocks
... er, smart rocks. Something clever. I have to work on my blog headlines.
There was a time there a few weeks ago when my favorite candidates, Barack Obama for president and Al Franken for Senate, were going through their respective former preacher and faux tax controversies at the same time. And, boy howdy, I was a sad panda. Moody, averse to television, I was no treat to be around. Today things are looking up in MinnesotaBrown land. Obama's posting 15 point leads in Minnesota and Franken has pulled back within two of Sen. Norm Coleman. When people start to associate candidates with actual issues like Iraq and the economy instead of the tripe that's dominated coverage of these big races, it stands to reason that both these candidates will pick up at least a few more points. That means that Obama could win Minnesota by Klobucharian proportions and Franken could win it by Wellstonian proportions.
This outcome is certainly not a done deal; this is a very volatile, competitive year. (and Hillary, McCain, Coleman and JNP fans among you, I know that you like your people, too, I'm just analyzin' here, friends). The headline for me, however, is that Franken weathered the worst month of his campaign so far and has nearly recovered his earlier numbers. Coleman and Franken both suffer from high negatives and low loyalty, according to the Rasmussen poll I cited earlier. So any race between them will be closer than the DFL/GOP index. But Franken has proven his bounce-back ability, just as Obama did a few weeks earlier. When he is endorsed next week, Franken will unroll his general election strategy and Apollo Creed will turn to his manager and say, "He doesn't know it's a damn show; he thinks it's a damn fight" and blah, blah, blah, something with Mr. T or the Russians and the good guys win eventually. That's the plan, anyway.
We must not forget, however, that there are pockets of trouble to watch out for. Bill Hanna and the Mesabi Daily News, the Range's largest daily paper, has taken a not-so-subtle editorial position ("How Heavy is the Baggage?" May 24) that anyone who doesn't A) have eerily shiny teeth and vote for coal gas tax breaks; or, B) ride an ATV from his bed to the breakfast table, is unfit for the United States Senate. With hit pieces like this raining down in a DFL stronghold, Franken must work on holding the line up here and winning new voters elsewhere to replace those who might be flecked off in areas like mine. (And kudos to my friend Tom Anzelc for sticking with Franken so forcefully).
It appears my dream of an all-writer top-of-the-DFL-ticket is coming true. For anyone who cares about this stuff, now is the time to get to work.
Oh, and postscript, the New York Times ran a story last weekend showing the importance of blogs in this Minnesota Senate race. I must admit, both camps have strong presences in the blogosphere. This could be a study case in the sophisticated new tactics of online campaigning.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Ventura hinting Senate run again
Former Gov. Jesse Ventura (I-Minn.) is hinting at a U.S. Senate run again.
As Larry Jacobs notes in the story, his timing may be right ... again. As much as I am a fan of DFLer Al Franken, he has higher than average negatives for a challenger. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) has higher negatives and is running in a bad year for Republicans. Ventura also has high negatives but I've got a hunch that his biggest fans are the folks who don't like Coleman or Franken. My gut says Ventura in the race hurts Franken first, but Franken and Coleman equally if Ventura gets above 20 points. Unlike 1998, Franken and Coleman have a better grip on their respective bases now than Humphrey and the same Coleman did then.
Point is, I'll go on the record and say that Ventura in this race makes it very, very unpredictable, more so than it already is.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Franken handles tax situation with perfect P.R.
Sure, you can dismiss this because my blog has been supportive of Al Franken's bid for the U.S. Senate. But I also know quite a bit about public relations and the news as part of my past career as a newspaper editor. I don't think Al Franken could have handled this tax story any better than he has. After a minor story about a past mistake in Franken's taxes, Al hired accountants to investigate. When his own accountants found a mistake in where his taxes were paid the campaign announced it themselves. They called every state delegate and even bloggers like me to explain the situation. All this before the media even reported the story. That is the classic definition of good public relations; confronting negativity head on, honestly and, most important, proactively.
This is going to be a part of the news cycle for the next few days but I'll go out front saying that Franken's campaign has approached this with both good faith and political awareness.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Overheard at Senate District 3's endorsing convention
Today, the Minnesota Senate District 3 Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party held its endorsing convention for House district's 3A and 3B.
Rep. Loren Solberg (DFL-Grand Rapids) and Rep. Tom Anzelc (DFL-Balsam Township), both incumbents, were endorsed for re-election. The biggest news of the day was the terrible weather that many believed would keep people away from the convention. While those in the northern part of the district were forced to stay home (they had 8-12 inches of snow in Koochiching County) about 50 people showed up regardless, including some from Lake of the Woods County in the far northern part of the state.
Since the business of the convention was fairly routine, here's some snapshots of what I heard today:
- The DFL endorsement battle for neighboring House District 4A has boiled down to Irene Folstrom and John Persell. There may be more candidates but Folstrom and Persell are working the phones and have a big jump. Interestingly, both have connections to the Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe: Folstrom, a band member who works with the Red Lake tribal court system, and Persell, a soil and water commissioner and longtime associate of the band who has worked on environmental issues. The question now becomes, A) will Leech Lake delegates go with a member of the band or a longtime associate of the band, and B) who shows up to the endorsing convention? Party regulars or all the new people who flooded the system because of the exciting presidential race? The answers to those questions will determine the endorsed candidate. The endorsed candidate will likely be the nominee and will likely face John Carlson, who recently announced he would seek the Republican endorsement for this seat. Tony Williams is also running for the Republican endorsement, but I keep hearing Carlson is going to be the more plausible candidate. If you read the Bemidji Pioneer story you'll see this guy Carlson is pretty savvy and gearing for a serious run at the 4A spot.
- The Al Franken vs. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer U.S. Senate battle for delegates continues, though from the mood of the group on Saturday clearly reflects the idea that Franken is well ahead and knocking on the door of a first-ballot endorsement. The JNP surrogate who spoke at today's SD 3 convention ended his speech by asking by show of hands who supported which candidate. By a 2-1 margin the crowd preferred Franken. Thus, the surrogate ended his speech with the phrase: "Well that went over like a turd in the punch bowl." I don't know that it's that bad for JNP around the state, but despite their fervor, JNP backers have yet to show me exactly how (and I mean numerically) their guy wins the endorsement.
- Same subject. Franken's pledged delegates are receiving heavy calls from JNP and surrogates trying to get them to switch. I've been criticized for making a big deal out of this, but if your primary targets are people who swore to their friends and neighbors they would vote the other way at the convention that means you're pretty far behind.
- We're all sick of snow. Everyone in northern Minnesota is sick of this fake spring we're getting. Also, the Prairie River is expected to flood even more in the coming week. So Itasca County residents have that to look forward to.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
JNP trying to poach Range area Franken delegates
It's been fairly quiet on the DFL Senate endorsement front lately, but I did get a tip last night that yields some insight on the Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer strategy to close what seems to be a wide deficit between him and Al Franken in pledged delegates. Apparently, JNP is inviting pledged Franken delegates to meet him Thursday at Chisholm's Tom and Jerry's, a classic Iron Range bar co-owned by former State Sen. Jerry Janezich. No doubt the conversation will include a pitch for these delegates to switch sides on the first or subsequent ballots.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Ventura U.S. Senate speculation
Jesse Ventura is toying with the idea of running for the U.S. Senate in his native Minnesota against incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and his top challenger Al Franken.
On one hand this is more plausible than the presidential campaign rumors we heard last week, but on the other I can't help but think this is still part of his new book's marketing campaign.
Everyone in Minnesota has learned not to dismiss Jesse Ventura like we did in early 1998. Objectively, I don't see a clear path for a Ventura victory. However, 2008 is a change year and Coleman and Franken both have high negatives. That was the witches brew that gave us Gov. Ventura ten years ago. I'm still in with my man Franken, but let's keep an eye on this.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Franken sweeps Iron Range
I bring news from the Iron Range.
DFL county unit conventions were held for Senate District 5 and Itasca County today in Hibbing and Nashwauk, respectively. Both use walking subcaucuses to elect delegates to the 8th Congressional District and State DFL conventions. Both were essentially proxy fights between Al Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer for the DFL endorsement in the U.S. Senate race.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Range Wars in tomorrow's DFL county unit conventions
County unit conventions are taking place all over Minnesota in the DFL and Republican parties. The only matter of statewide significance is who the Democrats will endorse in the U.S. Senate race to oppose Norm Coleman, Al Franken or Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. Both have agreed to abide by the party's endorsement. One of the most important regions in that statewide race is on my native Iron Range, where a treasure-trove of DFL delegates will be allocated tomorrow at the Senate District 5 and Itasca County DFL conventions, respectively. Though the actual human population of these units is far lower than many metro-area units, SD 05 carries something like 26 delegates (It might have changed from when I lived over on that side) and Itasca, my current home unit, carries 12 because of the Iron Range's reliable, almost unbelievable DFL voting record. (We're talking 65 percent DFL in a bad year, 85 percent in a good year).
I am the DFL Precinct Chair in Balsam Township and will be a county delegate at tomorrow Itasca DFL convention in Nashwauk. I was a former board of directors member in SD05 back when I lived in Hibbing. I will make this prediction. If Al Franken does well in tomorrow's conventions, we're looking at a first ballot endorsement. Itasca County has a huge Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer following because of the strength of the Progressive Caucus there. I expect my convention to split roughly down the middle. But if Franken pulls out a majority at SD05 in nearby Hibbing, with its delegate count exceeding that of three suburban cities, I see no way that Nelson-Pallmeyer breaks the requisite 40 percent at the state convention to forestall a first ballot Franken endorsement. Mike Ciresi was going to get a dozen delegates in SD05 and maybe one or two out of Itasca. He's out now. His folks will determine how tomorrow's results turns out. Franken has held such an advantage in pledged delegates so far that Nelson-Pallmeyer needs to carry huge numbers.
I'll report in tomorrow evening with news of the Itasca and SD05 conventions. Franken and Nelson-Pallmeyer will both be there, shuttling between the working class Range towns of Nashwauk and Hibbing. It may come down to who's blue work shirt looks less new. (Less new being preferable).
Friday, February 29, 2008
The "Coleman Letters" controversy
By now, you may have read the news about Sen. Norm Coleman's campaign distributing mass letters to the editor for supporters to submit to papers around Minnesota. (MPR, MNPublius, AP). The letters were criticizing Coleman opponent Al Franken, the leading Democrat. While encouraging supporters to write letters to the editor is common practice, the concept of having several people sign the same letter in different areas is generally considered to be crossing a line.
