Update: Forums scheduled for hot 4A race

Here's an update from the House District 4A race. This is the seat that popular incumbent Frank Moe (DFL-Bemidji) is abandoning to pursue a Ph.D. and focus on his family. We've got endorsement fights on both sides of the aisle.

DFL
There are still only two announced DFL candidates for endorsement: Leech Lake band member and attorney Irene Folstrom and Beltrami County Soil and Water commissioner John Persell. Both candidates have run unsuccessful campaigns for the legislature before and have learned from the experience. The word from the district is that Folstrom and Persell are both working the delegate lists hard and that it's hard to say which currently has the upper hand. There remains the possibility that other candidates could jump in, but no one has expressed any public interest. The SD 04 DFL will hold a series of forums for delegates to meet the candidates.

SD4 will be hosting three forums this month - an open setting for any parties interested in running for House Seat 4A. This is an open forum, welcoming for people interested in running to come and tell area DFLers about themself and some mingling, and one on one conversations and question and answers.

DFL 4A endorsement race forum times and locations:

Sunday, May 18 in Deer River at the Helping Hands recycling center board room - 5 p.m.

Tuesday, May 20 in Cass Lake at the American Legion - 6 p.m.

Thursday, May 22 in Bemidji at the Eagles Club - 6 p.m.

The SD4 endorsing convention will be held on Saturday, May 31 in Cass Lake at the Palace Casino at 10 a.m., registration at 9 a.m.

Gotta' love the subtle mix of democracy and gambling.

GOP
Meantime, the Republicans have a race for their endorsement as well. Furniture entrepreneur Tony Williams was originally unopposed to challenge Moe, but with Moe's departure John Carlson, an insurance man from Bemidji, announced his intent to seek the Republican endorsement for 4A State Representative. Initially it seemed that Carlson would be the more organized candidate, but Williams has posted to this blog vowing a hard fight for the GOP endorsement. The tone I've heard from Bemidji is that Carlson is the guy to beat here, but in these hastily assembled open races it's all about who can turn out delegates.

There are so many variables up and down the ticket this year that I can't properly handicap this race yet. My gut says this seat still leans DFL but is by no means an assured victory. So much depends upon the strength of the endorsed candidates.

Updated: Persell to join 4A hunt

When Rep. Frank Moe made his surprise announcement Saturday that he would not seek reelection in Minnesota House District 4A, the Bemidji Pioneer quoted two names as being on the minds of 4A DFL delegates: Irene Folstrom and John Persell. Folstrom officially joined the race for the DFL endorsement on Tuesday; Persell did so Wednesday. DFL sources in the Bemidji area tell me these are two good candidates, but I must admit I don't know much about either of them except that they've both run for office before and fallen short. When the fuller picture is clear I may try to get them to talk about their candidacies here. I welcome anyone running in 4A to contact me if they'd like to introduce themselves.

Here's what we learned when I ran Rep. Tom Anzelc's campaign in 3A in 2006. We were running to replace Rep. Irv Anderson who didn't retire until after the precinct caucuses and endorsing convention. A special endorsing convention was called. I'll spare you the details, but the thing that Folstrom and Persell now deal with is a fixed delegate list. The delegates eligible to vote at the special convention came out on precinct caucus night for a thousand reasons -- Obama, Clinton, Franken, Nelson-Pallmeyer, a resolution on multiple cat ownership, to make the voices stop, you name it. None of them came out with Irene Folstrom or John Persell on their minds (except, you know, Irene and John). Now the candidates have to round up a sufficient number of these delegates to reach the 60 percent threshold out of a turnout that could range from 50 to a gabillion to win the endorsement. If a candidate's brother or neighbor or Uncle Joe aren't delegates, they can only watch. You've got to cold call delegates from a list you had no role in writing. Connections are key and as past candidates I expect both Folstrom and Persell are working on familiar names from that list this week. It's not about getting yesses, it's about getting yesses to show up.

I'm going to assume (and hope) that the candidates honor the endorsement. The candidate Tom Anzelc faced at the special 3A convention in 2006 honored the endorsement but we had to battle a different candidate in the primary and it cost some serious folding money. (3A is the size of a New England-style state and includes three counties).

I wasn't at the District 4 convention last weekend, but the Itasca DFL convention several weeks ago was a cauldron of new voters who were extremely excited about the presidential race but unfamiliar with local tradition. Are they going to come out for something called the "District 4A Special Endorsing Convention?" Maybe. If so, you can't argue with raw numbers. Anyone who can harness the first time delegates in 4A is likely the endorsed candidate.

UPDATE: The Bemidji Pioneer has the Persell announcement in today's edition. My gut reaction as an outsider is that Persell and Folstrom will have built-in support from people who backed them before but that they both must show what they've learned from past unsuccessful attempts for endorsement. Persell's 63-37 defeat in his recent county commissioner race also strikes me as damaging, though I need to find out more about that before I count it against him. I also want to know where the unions are going to go.

A game changing announcement in Bemidji

State Rep. Frank Moe (DFL-Bemidji) surprised the political establishment of SD 4 and northern Minnesota by announcing he won't seek re-election during what was expected to be his nominating speech for the 4A DFL endorsement Saturday. (The Bemidji Pioneer has a good story on this).

Moe is finishing his second term in the House and is regarded as a rising star in the DFL. He said he isn't ruling out a political career in the future, but that he needs to spend time with his wife, sled dogs and family business.

There are a two angles on this.

First, the person angle. It's remarkable that anyone in the legislature can stay married or loved by their children. It's not necessarily a difficult job but the time commitment is vast and you're never off the clock. There are tremendous advantages for any legislator who is either single or whose family has grown and left the house. Anyone with a busy family life or another career faces difficult decisions about time every day. Living outside the metro area only compounds this problem (For my metro friends; Picture the busiest time of your life and add a four hour drive to a home you see once a week). In this regard Moe's decision is quite easy to understand.

Second, politically, this is a concern for the DFL as they try to find a candidate, but here's my initial take. Moe was very popular in what had been a Republican district before he was elected in 2004. He was expected to win easily this year. The Republicans had recruited a political newcomer, Tony Williams, to run against him. I don't know much about Mr. Williams but no one seemed worried about him when Moe was running. If the DFL can recruit a strong candidate I still see this one as "Leans DFL." A lousy candidate makes this a toss-up.

There are some candidate names floating around. A survey cited in the Bemidji Pioneer lists them as "John Persell, a Beltrami Soil and Water Conservation District supervisor, and Irene Folstrom, a Leech Lake enrollee who is an attorney in the Red Lake Tribal Courts system." I saw Folstrom speak when she was seeking the State Senate endorsement at the 2006 Itasca DFL convention, an endorsement she lost narrowly to Mary Olson who went on to win the seat. Folstrom was a little nervous as a speaker but her personal story is compelling and she seems smart. As a college speech instructor I know that you can fix public speaking problems, but you can't manufacture intelligence or sincerity. So right now I like the sound of "Rep. Irene Folstrom" in 4B. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I had Frank Moe as a Congressional contender in 2012 after the redistricting and potential retirements of Congressmen Peterson and Oberstar (all theoretical). Now that seems unlikely. Nevertheless, Rep. Moe deserves special recognition for turning on his district to the DFL message and for four good years of work in the legislature. Fact is, we in northern Minnesota need a dozen bright, energetic leaders in each of our communities for every one we send to St. Paul. I'm sure Frank will find something to keep him busy up north.

MEANTIME: Meg Bye was DFL endorsed for House 4B and now faces an uphill fight against Rep. Larry Howes (R-Walker). Meg's a good candidate and would be a good legislator but that district runs a little redder than 4A. If the DFL has a good year she could sneak in with the wave, however. (A prospect that would be helped if we had some closure in Pennsylvania on Tuesday).

UPDATE: As you see in the comments, Irene Folstrom lives in 4A and seems to be thinking about a run for this office. I'll post back when I know more.