UPDATE X2: Folstrom drops out of 4A DFL race; Persell poised as frontrunner

Dammit, blogging, I can't quit you.

So much for the "no blog" Tuesday afternoon.

FLASH! From the House District 4A DFL endorsement race. Irene Folstrom withdrew her bid for the endorsement today, leaving a clear path for the other candidate, John Persell, a Beltrami County Soil and Water commissioner and longtime DFLer. Persell has worked in government and as an environmental consultant for the Leech Lake tribe of Ojibwa, which means he has a good relationship with many of the constituencies he would serve as State Representative. He's also, from what I've heard from Bemidji friends, got the potential to be a very knowledgeable and effective representative in the mold of popular outgoing Rep. Frank Moe. And he's got wind turbines on his property. Damn, that's hot. (I'm serious. I want a turbine more than any other large, metal, currently unaffordable piece of machinery).

Anyway, it's still possible that other candidates could emerge on either side, but Persell now has a clear upper hand and should be considered the favorite for the DFL endorsement and nomination. Either Tony Williams or John Carlson will be the Republican candidate.

UPDATE:
Why did Folstrom drop out? Here is an excerpt from her press release last night:

Today, after much thought and consideration, Irene Folstrom has decided to not seek the DFL endorsement for House District 4A seat. Folstrom attributes her decision to family concerns and a desire to devote her energy to local issues and becoming more involved in the communities of Northern Minnesota.

“While I am sad to come to the decision to not seek the endorsement, I am excited to re-emerge myself in community activism, economic development initiatives and focusing on my young family. I am thrilled to have my oldest child start kindergarten this fall at Lincoln Elementary and watch my husband’s career flourish. I’ve decided to put politics on the backburner for now to focus on what has driven me my whole life: giving hope and energy to my communities and be a great mother and wife. I will be very involved in the campaigns this election cycle and know this is the right
decision for my family, our party and our communities. I look forward to playing a more active role in the redevelopment of my hometown of Cass Lake and the exciting changes happening here in Bemidji.”

Folstrom will continue to work on the campaigns locally and nationally throughout the campaign cycle. Folstrom, her husband and two sons will be active participants throughout the elections.

Who says Democrats aren't big on family values? Here we have two candidates in Bemidji, Frank Moe and now Irene Folstrom, passing on a run for office because of the time it takes away from family. This is a big issue for anyone in office, but especially those who live several hours away from St. Paul.

Also, from a political standpoint, I image that Folstrom and Persell were competing for the same voters from the Leech Lake band -- a major DFL demographic in 4A. Folstrom is a Leech Lake member and Persell is a longtime associate of the band. If those delegates were splitting their support in any measurable way that may have been enough to convince Irene to try again another time. In any event, Irene conducted herself well in this process and may well have another shot at office in the future.

Update: Forums scheduled for hot 4A race

Here's an update from the House District 4A race. This is the seat that popular incumbent Frank Moe (DFL-Bemidji) is abandoning to pursue a Ph.D. and focus on his family. We've got endorsement fights on both sides of the aisle.

DFL
There are still only two announced DFL candidates for endorsement: Leech Lake band member and attorney Irene Folstrom and Beltrami County Soil and Water commissioner John Persell. Both candidates have run unsuccessful campaigns for the legislature before and have learned from the experience. The word from the district is that Folstrom and Persell are both working the delegate lists hard and that it's hard to say which currently has the upper hand. There remains the possibility that other candidates could jump in, but no one has expressed any public interest. The SD 04 DFL will hold a series of forums for delegates to meet the candidates.

SD4 will be hosting three forums this month - an open setting for any parties interested in running for House Seat 4A. This is an open forum, welcoming for people interested in running to come and tell area DFLers about themself and some mingling, and one on one conversations and question and answers.

DFL 4A endorsement race forum times and locations:

Sunday, May 18 in Deer River at the Helping Hands recycling center board room - 5 p.m.

Tuesday, May 20 in Cass Lake at the American Legion - 6 p.m.

Thursday, May 22 in Bemidji at the Eagles Club - 6 p.m.

The SD4 endorsing convention will be held on Saturday, May 31 in Cass Lake at the Palace Casino at 10 a.m., registration at 9 a.m.

Gotta' love the subtle mix of democracy and gambling.

GOP
Meantime, the Republicans have a race for their endorsement as well. Furniture entrepreneur Tony Williams was originally unopposed to challenge Moe, but with Moe's departure John Carlson, an insurance man from Bemidji, announced his intent to seek the Republican endorsement for 4A State Representative. Initially it seemed that Carlson would be the more organized candidate, but Williams has posted to this blog vowing a hard fight for the GOP endorsement. The tone I've heard from Bemidji is that Carlson is the guy to beat here, but in these hastily assembled open races it's all about who can turn out delegates.

There are so many variables up and down the ticket this year that I can't properly handicap this race yet. My gut says this seat still leans DFL but is by no means an assured victory. So much depends upon the strength of the endorsed candidates.

Overheard at Senate District 3's endorsing convention

Today, the Minnesota Senate District 3 Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party held its endorsing convention for House district's 3A and 3B.

Rep. Loren Solberg (DFL-Grand Rapids) and Rep. Tom Anzelc (DFL-Balsam Township), both incumbents, were endorsed for re-election. The biggest news of the day was the terrible weather that many believed would keep people away from the convention. While those in the northern part of the district were forced to stay home (they had 8-12 inches of snow in Koochiching County) about 50 people showed up regardless, including some from Lake of the Woods County in the far northern part of the state.


Since the business of the convention was fairly routine, here's some snapshots of what I heard today:

• The DFL endorsement battle for neighboring House District 4A has boiled down to Irene Folstrom and John Persell. There may be more candidates but Folstrom and Persell are working the phones and have a big jump. Interestingly, both have connections to the Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe: Folstrom, a band member who works with the Red Lake tribal court system, and Persell, a soil and water commissioner and longtime associate of the band who has worked on environmental issues. The question now becomes, A) will Leech Lake delegates go with a member of the band or a longtime associate of the band, and B) who shows up to the endorsing convention? Party regulars or all the new people who flooded the system because of the exciting presidential race? The answers to those questions will determine the endorsed candidate. The endorsed candidate will likely be the nominee and will likely face John Carlson, who recently announced he would seek the Republican endorsement for this seat. Tony Williams is also running for the Republican endorsement, but I keep hearing Carlson is going to be the more plausible candidate. If you read the Bemidji Pioneer story you'll see this guy Carlson is pretty savvy and gearing for a serious run at the 4A spot.
  
• The Al Franken vs. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer U.S. Senate battle for delegates continues, though from the mood of the group on Saturday clearly reflects the idea that Franken is well ahead and knocking on the door of a first-ballot endorsement. The JNP surrogate who spoke at today's SD 3 convention ended his speech by asking by show of hands who supported which candidate. By a 2-1 margin the crowd preferred Franken. Thus, the surrogate ended his speech with the phrase: "Well that went over like a turd in the punch bowl." I don't know that it's that bad for JNP around the state, but despite their fervor, JNP backers have yet to show me exactly how (and I mean numerically) their guy wins the endorsement.
  
• Same subject. Franken's pledged delegates are receiving heavy calls from JNP and surrogates trying to get them to switch. I've been criticized for making a big deal out of this, but if your primary targets are people who swore to their friends and neighbors they would vote the other way at the convention that means you're pretty far behind.
  
• We're all sick of snow. Everyone in northern Minnesota is sick of this fake spring we're getting. Also, the Prairie River is expected to flood even more in the coming week. So Itasca County residents have that to look forward to.

Update: 4A endorsement race

It's looking like Irene Folstrom vs. John Pernell for the DFL endorsement in House District 4A. For now, I'll just try to share as much information as I can. Irene contacted me with information about a candidate meet and greet next week.

Meet the Candidate:
Irene Folstrom

Friday, May 2
5-8 p.m.
At her home, 300 Irving Beach Drive
Bemidji, Minn.

I still haven't heard anything about other candidates. Someone e-mailed me to say that John Pernell has wind turbines on his property, which does raise his standing with me. If someone knows of any of his events let me know.

I'm also hearing rumors that the Republicans are looking for a stronger opponent. I'll post more when I can confirm a name.

I'm guessing that to win the endorsement, Folstrom or Persell will have to lock down 60-100 solid yes votes (meaning they show up and vote, not just express support on the phone).

Updated: Persell to join 4A hunt

When Rep. Frank Moe made his surprise announcement Saturday that he would not seek reelection in Minnesota House District 4A, the Bemidji Pioneer quoted two names as being on the minds of 4A DFL delegates: Irene Folstrom and John Persell. Folstrom officially joined the race for the DFL endorsement on Tuesday; Persell did so Wednesday. DFL sources in the Bemidji area tell me these are two good candidates, but I must admit I don't know much about either of them except that they've both run for office before and fallen short. When the fuller picture is clear I may try to get them to talk about their candidacies here. I welcome anyone running in 4A to contact me if they'd like to introduce themselves.

Here's what we learned when I ran Rep. Tom Anzelc's campaign in 3A in 2006. We were running to replace Rep. Irv Anderson who didn't retire until after the precinct caucuses and endorsing convention. A special endorsing convention was called. I'll spare you the details, but the thing that Folstrom and Persell now deal with is a fixed delegate list. The delegates eligible to vote at the special convention came out on precinct caucus night for a thousand reasons -- Obama, Clinton, Franken, Nelson-Pallmeyer, a resolution on multiple cat ownership, to make the voices stop, you name it. None of them came out with Irene Folstrom or John Persell on their minds (except, you know, Irene and John). Now the candidates have to round up a sufficient number of these delegates to reach the 60 percent threshold out of a turnout that could range from 50 to a gabillion to win the endorsement. If a candidate's brother or neighbor or Uncle Joe aren't delegates, they can only watch. You've got to cold call delegates from a list you had no role in writing. Connections are key and as past candidates I expect both Folstrom and Persell are working on familiar names from that list this week. It's not about getting yesses, it's about getting yesses to show up.

I'm going to assume (and hope) that the candidates honor the endorsement. The candidate Tom Anzelc faced at the special 3A convention in 2006 honored the endorsement but we had to battle a different candidate in the primary and it cost some serious folding money. (3A is the size of a New England-style state and includes three counties).

I wasn't at the District 4 convention last weekend, but the Itasca DFL convention several weeks ago was a cauldron of new voters who were extremely excited about the presidential race but unfamiliar with local tradition. Are they going to come out for something called the "District 4A Special Endorsing Convention?" Maybe. If so, you can't argue with raw numbers. Anyone who can harness the first time delegates in 4A is likely the endorsed candidate.

UPDATE: The Bemidji Pioneer has the Persell announcement in today's edition. My gut reaction as an outsider is that Persell and Folstrom will have built-in support from people who backed them before but that they both must show what they've learned from past unsuccessful attempts for endorsement. Persell's 63-37 defeat in his recent county commissioner race also strikes me as damaging, though I need to find out more about that before I count it against him. I also want to know where the unions are going to go.

Folstrom out first in 4A DFL race

Irene Folstrom has entered the race to succeed Rep. Frank Moe (DFL-Bemidji). The Bemidji Pioneer reported this Tuesday.

From what I know in my political endeavors (I chaired Tom Anzelc's campaign in 2006, which involved an incumbent stepping down after the county convention), ramping up early is crucial in special endorsement conventions. In this regard Folstrom has won the day. She's out. She's been in front of DFL delegates before and almost pulled off the endorsement two years ago for Senate District 4. Irene Folstrom is the frontrunner now. We'll wait to see who else jumps in.

As I said in a comment to an earlier post, 4A is now the major race of interest in northern Minnesota, certainly in the primary. I'll try to keep tabs on the progress.

A game changing announcement in Bemidji

State Rep. Frank Moe (DFL-Bemidji) surprised the political establishment of SD 4 and northern Minnesota by announcing he won't seek re-election during what was expected to be his nominating speech for the 4A DFL endorsement Saturday. (The Bemidji Pioneer has a good story on this).

Moe is finishing his second term in the House and is regarded as a rising star in the DFL. He said he isn't ruling out a political career in the future, but that he needs to spend time with his wife, sled dogs and family business.

There are a two angles on this.

First, the person angle. It's remarkable that anyone in the legislature can stay married or loved by their children. It's not necessarily a difficult job but the time commitment is vast and you're never off the clock. There are tremendous advantages for any legislator who is either single or whose family has grown and left the house. Anyone with a busy family life or another career faces difficult decisions about time every day. Living outside the metro area only compounds this problem (For my metro friends; Picture the busiest time of your life and add a four hour drive to a home you see once a week). In this regard Moe's decision is quite easy to understand.

Second, politically, this is a concern for the DFL as they try to find a candidate, but here's my initial take. Moe was very popular in what had been a Republican district before he was elected in 2004. He was expected to win easily this year. The Republicans had recruited a political newcomer, Tony Williams, to run against him. I don't know much about Mr. Williams but no one seemed worried about him when Moe was running. If the DFL can recruit a strong candidate I still see this one as "Leans DFL." A lousy candidate makes this a toss-up.

There are some candidate names floating around. A survey cited in the Bemidji Pioneer lists them as "John Persell, a Beltrami Soil and Water Conservation District supervisor, and Irene Folstrom, a Leech Lake enrollee who is an attorney in the Red Lake Tribal Courts system." I saw Folstrom speak when she was seeking the State Senate endorsement at the 2006 Itasca DFL convention, an endorsement she lost narrowly to Mary Olson who went on to win the seat. Folstrom was a little nervous as a speaker but her personal story is compelling and she seems smart. As a college speech instructor I know that you can fix public speaking problems, but you can't manufacture intelligence or sincerity. So right now I like the sound of "Rep. Irene Folstrom" in 4B. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I had Frank Moe as a Congressional contender in 2012 after the redistricting and potential retirements of Congressmen Peterson and Oberstar (all theoretical). Now that seems unlikely. Nevertheless, Rep. Moe deserves special recognition for turning on his district to the DFL message and for four good years of work in the legislature. Fact is, we in northern Minnesota need a dozen bright, energetic leaders in each of our communities for every one we send to St. Paul. I'm sure Frank will find something to keep him busy up north.

MEANTIME: Meg Bye was DFL endorsed for House 4B and now faces an uphill fight against Rep. Larry Howes (R-Walker). Meg's a good candidate and would be a good legislator but that district runs a little redder than 4A. If the DFL has a good year she could sneak in with the wave, however. (A prospect that would be helped if we had some closure in Pennsylvania on Tuesday).

UPDATE: As you see in the comments, Irene Folstrom lives in 4A and seems to be thinking about a run for this office. I'll post back when I know more.