Manageable U.S. Senate race wackiness

So, no Jesse this year. One poll shows an Al Franken lead, another shows Norm Coleman well ahead. So this Minnesota U.S. Senate race is just wacky. Not, uber-wacky, but a regular sort of smooth drinking wacky. And so we continue...

Ventura to announce plans Monday

Jesse Ventura will announce his plans for the U.S. Senate race Monday night.

It had appeared that the Ventura for Senate fever was dying down, but I doubt Jesse's going to get all dressed up Monday night for nothing.

Meantime, Good Morning America did a segment on Al Franken this morning that showed the whole crux of Al's trouble in the polls. Franken is a fantastic politician, good with people and a strong speaker. My opinion is that he'd be a great senator, too. But the media and many voters still can't get over the career in comedy. If he addresses this somehow he still has a shot, even with Ventura in the race.

Ventura Watch, continued

It would now seem former Gov. Jesse Ventura is pulling back the reins on speculation about his potential run for the U.S. Senate. I'm moving back to the opinion that he's using this for publicity value. While I can envision a scenario where Ventura could win, I can't envision a scenario where he completes a six-year term in the United States Senate.

The Ventura watch

A reader heard Jesse Ventura on (N)PR today and tells me he sounds exactly like a candidate. I hate to be the one to say it, but he's a legitimate threat to win this race. Fiscal conservative. Anti-war. Perpetually angry. It's getting to be an angry year.

It would play out like this. At first, Ventura would siphon polling numbers away from my guy Al Franken. Everyone would get all hot and bothered and say that Franken is road meat and that Sen. Norm Coleman's real challenger is Ventura. At the debates, Jesse gets in Norm's grill and everyone, including Republicans, realize that Norm isn't especially likable. So then Norm's numbers dive and you've got a 30/30/30 poll taken the week before the election. Anyone could win in that situation. Franken's people might want to draw up a contingency plan that involves a bump draft behind an insurgent Ventura for a come-from-behind win. Remember Humphrey's folly!

UPDATE: ABC is reporting that Ventura implied he was running during the interview, which was apparently on National Public Radio.

The Carlson Question

Grace Kelly over at MNBlue is discussing the possibility of former moderate Republican Gov. Arne Carlson jumping into Minnesota's U.S. Senate race either as an independent or as a DFLer. What a world! What a world! The theory is based on some push polling that was done that included Arne's name as a DFL candidate. We don't know if his name was used because of legitimate buzz about a campaign or if it was used as a "baseline" because of his large, but dispassionate, popularity in the state.

It's hard to see any scenario where Coleman gets less than 35-40 percent of the vote, which is roughly equal to Al Franken's base as well. The reason Coleman has the advantage is his lead among moderate GOPers and right-leaning independents who crossed over for Amy Klobuchar and might cross over for Barack Obama, but who have yet to warm to Franken. It's hard to say whether Carlson would help or hurt Franken's cause or eat into the GOP base. And Jesse Ventura is still mulling a run, too, which would probably hurt Franken more than Coleman.

I still like Al Franken, but his road to the Senate will be very unlike that of traditional Democratic challengers this cycle.

Ventura giving Senate run a strong look; chaos is coming

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura may likely run for the U.S. Senate this year, according to longtime adviser and briefly appointed U.S. Sen. Dean Barkley.

If Ventura does run, take all your conventional wisdom about the Franken vs. Coleman race and throw it out. I don't know that Ventura has a chance to actually win (it depends on how Coleman and Franken react to his candidacy). But he will take in a large number of disaffected Republicans, Democrats and independents in the disgruntled nooks and crannies of the political spectrum. He pulls 15 percent easy, with a ceiling around 40 (which could win).

But I'm betting that some lessons were learned after Ventura's surprise election as governor in 1998. Coleman and Franken will do a better job in keeping their bases than Coleman and Humphrey did that year. If it's all about the base, then Franken has a good chance. Polls show more self-identified Democrats in Minnesota than Republicans. And a lot of the veneer has worn off Ventura's act since 1998. He has shown some capability in politics, but has also taken far too many opportunities to make a buck when the cameras are pointed at him. And there is just no way I can see this guy stomaching six whole years in the United States Senate ... not without some kind of high profile incident.

Still, as this whole discussions shows, Minnesota remains an independent-minded state.

Ventura hinting Senate run again

Former Gov. Jesse Ventura (I-Minn.) is hinting at a U.S. Senate run again.

As Larry Jacobs notes in the story, his timing may be right ... again. As much as I am a fan of DFLer Al Franken, he has higher than average negatives for a challenger. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) has higher negatives and is running in a bad year for Republicans. Ventura also has high negatives but I've got a hunch that his biggest fans are the folks who don't like Coleman or Franken. My gut says Ventura in the race hurts Franken first, but Franken and Coleman equally if Ventura gets above 20 points. Unlike 1998, Franken and Coleman have a better grip on their respective bases now than Humphrey and the same Coleman did then.

Point is, I'll go on the record and say that Ventura in this race makes it very, very unpredictable, more so than it already is.

Ventura U.S. Senate speculation

Jesse Ventura is toying with the idea of running for the U.S. Senate in his native Minnesota against incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and his top challenger Al Franken.

On one hand this is more plausible than the presidential campaign rumors we heard last week, but on the other I can't help but think this is still part of his new book's marketing campaign.

Everyone in Minnesota has learned not to dismiss Jesse Ventura like we did in early 1998. Objectively, I don't see a clear path for a Ventura victory. However, 2008 is a change year and Coleman and Franken both have high negatives. That was the witches brew that gave us Gov. Ventura ten years ago. I'm still in with my man Franken, but let's keep an eye on this.

Ventura for President chatter reaches cable news

Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura is at the center of presidential political chatter again. This morning CNN has been promoting an upcoming interview with Ventura that leans heavily on his potential candidacy.

What's still unclear to me is how Ventura would actually run for president. As an independent? On the Unity '08 ticket? Libertarian? He's not running as a Green. Unless he has ballot access through an existing party he would have to gather a couple million petition signatures across all 50 states to get on the ballot. That's what leads me to believe that this is just a book tour promotion and that by summer we won't hear much more about Ventura '08.

Jesse Ventura is a curious character in Minnesota political history. Bear in mind that I was one of those "young kids" who, in a moment of frustration, voted for Ventura back in 1998. I was ultimately disappointed in his term of office, but mostly because he wasted a unique opportunity to be a strong non-partisan governor. Instead he focused on his own self-promotion and a very limited agenda. Still, it is worth noting that Jesse Ventura did EXACTLY what he said he would do as governor. It wasn't pretty, but it was remarkable.

"The Mind" might run in '08

Seeing as this year's presidential race will be so boring, former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura is entering the speculation of of national bloggers as a 2008 alternative candidate.

My moustache mistake

I made a dumb mistake in my column yesterday. In a (mostly) satirical column I suggested that Minnesota trade its high-profile Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty to North Dakota for its Republican Gov. John Hoeven, a bunch of steaks and two nuclear weapons. In the column I say that Minnesota hasn't had a governor with a moustache in a long time and "we're due."

Well, diligent readers will surely point out soon that Gov. Jesse Ventura had a moustache and he left office just five years ago. This was a stupid mistake for a "journalist" like myself, but here's the thing ... in the moment I wrote that column, I actually forgot that Ventura was our governor. This is significant. He was the most famous person to ever hold the office of Minnesota governor and probably the only pro wrestler ever to be elected to a statewide office anywhere. His term was mostly a bust, but he certainly made a splash.

And I forgot it happened.

I wonder if this is like a selective memory lapse, like what you use to wipe bad romantic experiences from your memory later in life. "No, I never dated a carnival worker," one might say, if one had and wished they hadn't.

So anyway, sorry for the mistake. I still think unloading Pawlenty for steaks would be a good move and WDIO news anchor Dennis Anderson won't retain his high value much longer. I could see Anderson being successful in Milwaukee. Maybe we make this a three way trade and figure out a way to get some beer with those steaks.

The column is here.