Super Tuesday on the Iron Range

Nothing knocks over a mountain in one night. But when you combine wind and water and the correct amount of time, the mountain is destined to fall. That's how I feel about the status of my Democratic party this morning. Barack Obama was down by a million a few months ago and now he's running even. He didn't knock down the mountain of the Clinton organization and name recognition last night, but he showed that the future of our party is going a new direction and that change will come. I only hope we have enough time to make that change happen in 2008.

Obama won more states and may draw even in the delegate count before Tuesday's aftermath is fully calculated. He's got some good states for him in the next week, and then he has the monumental task of beating Clinton in Ohio, Texas or Pennsylvania in the weeks that follow. Can he do this? Yes, but not easily or without the support of new voters. He also needs to close the gender gap and swing upward 10 points among Hispanics. All difficult tasks; all doable.

I'll let the national pundits discuss that issue, however. I am left amazed at what happened in Northern Minnesota and the Iron Range last night.

I live in Balsam Township, a tiny rural outpost northwest of Hibbing. We had a handful in 2004 show up to caucuses, 12 in 2006. Last night we had 28 ballots cast. That's unbelievable if you know the township. But more surprising was the outcome. Obama 21, Clinton 6, Uncommitted 1.
Balsam may be small, but I think it's a good bellwether for the unique DFL bastion on the Iron Range. Our township is a mix of labor, socially conservative economic liberals, hippie transplants and pro-gun folks. And Obama swamped it, in numbers similar to what happened across the Iron Range. The only big Range town that went for Clinton (that I know of today) was Hibbing, which was the heart of Clinton's northern Minnesota organization. Virtually all the Edwards folks I know went to Obama.

Meantime, we took a nonbinding straw poll for the U.S. Senate race. THIS shows a much more interesting dynamic. Remember, Balsam is the "Missouri" of northern Minnesota. It's a swing precinct that shows trends in both parties. The DFL caucus came up with this result for the Senate race: Al Franken 12, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer 10, Mike Ciresi 6, Uncommitted, 3. (The ballot totals are different because we let two guests who showed up at the wrong precinct vote in this nonbinding poll).

In other words, my earlier assertion that the Range is split three ways seems to be correct. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer will win more delegates than one would expect in northern Minnesota. AND, Mike Ciresi is not catching on here. A good ground game by Franken could neutralize the Nelson-Pallmeyer factor before the convention.

What does this mean for the rest of the state? Well, the Iron Range is the conservative edge of the DFL's winning coalition. Obama can win here. Franken and Nelson-Pallmeyer are splitting progressives, but Franken has the edge because statewide he's in a fight with Ciresi.

This post was also published at www.mnblue.com, a state political blog with a grassroots readership.

Franken in Grand Rapids today

Al Franken is in Grand Rapids today. He'll appear with Rep. Tom Anzelc at Brewed Awakenings at 4 p.m. Three candidates are making a serious pitch for delegates in the DFL U.S. Senate race, Franken, Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. As I've posted before, I see a three-way split on the Iron Range over these candidates. I think only the delegate count after the March county conventions will show which of these candidates has the advantage. I am supporting Franken (a disclosure), but objectively I'd say that Franken has shown the best ground game so far but that the most passionate supporters belong to Nelson-Pallmeyer. Ciresi is clearly setting up as the "Franken alternative" for those squeamish about endorsing Franken next summer.

A note: If the Democratic Party nominates Hillary Clinton and Mike Ciresi I will vote straight-ticket Bull Moose. I'm just saying.

No U.S. Senate candidate has Range advantage

The Iron Range doesn't always line up votes in statewide endorsement battles, but often it will. Not so this year. If you recall some of my earlier posts about Range politics (Part 1 and Part 2) the Range has three basic DFL factions: labor, progressives and opinion leaders. Sometimes they line up and sometimes they divide into coalitions. What's unique about the U.S. Senate race this year is that all three are divided and subdivided between three different candidates.

Range Labor is splitting its support between Al Franken (Teamsters, Steelworkes) and Mike Ciresi (AFSCME Council 65). Opinion leaders are divided between Franken, Ciresi and "None of the Above." One group this is starting to unite, however, is the Progressives. Tonight in Grand Rapids, the Itasca DFL (think western Iron Range) progressive caucus is hosting Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer for an event. I think this may portend strong support from the progressives for Nelson-Pallmeyer at the caucuses. This is significant because the "worker bees" on the Iron Range are labor and progressives. If labor is divided or sits on its hands, progressives will get a free shot to push their candidate at caucuses.

Notable is the fact that Al Franken is a strong second choice for Range progressives and he would benefit most in the likely event that Nelson-Pallmeyer falls short in the endorsement fight. However, it makes JNP something of a kingmaker.

Point of order: A guy with a hyphenated last name cannot win the state of Minnesota. Wish we lived in a better world, but that's just my gut feeling.

Remember progressives are only 1/3 of the DFL mix on the Iron Range, but if they're the only ones who are working they could sneak away with several dozen delegates in a DFL bastion.

On a side note, if anyone from Franken's campaign reads this, you should be on TV right now running ads that define Franken as a thoughtful writer of satire who is running for all the right reasons. Don't mention Coleman. Don't even complain about Bush except maybe a veiled reference. Happy. Happy. Smart. Friendly. Happy. Happy. Do it now because after Coleman runs his first SNL attack ad it will look contrived. Also, by running ads now you will get an inevitability bump before the caucuses and all-important county conventions.

CHEATER NOTES FOR SUBURBANITES AND 24-YEAR-OLD IMPORTED CAMPAIGN WORKERS: The "Iron Range" in political terms includes MN Senate districts 3, 5 and a big part of 6. We are married to Duluth but don't really love them anymore, if we ever really did. (We think they're cheating on us). Counties directly or loosely affiliated with the Range include St. Louis, Itasca, Cook, Lake, Koochiching, Aitkin and Carlton. We like whiskey and beer.

Minnesota U.S. Senate race heats up on the Range

I see at MN Publius that State Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-Cook) has endorsed attorney Mike Ciresi for Minnesota's upcoming U.S. Senate race. The editors at MN Publius believe this may portend future Ciresi endorsements from other Range legislators. It might, but this situation is indicative of the overall woes of this Senate race. Incumbent Norm Coleman is somewhat popular, but not in any meaningful way. People generally don't hate him, but believe that he's a pretty slippery political chameleon.

Part of the appeal is that he's been very good about the "process" of being a Senator; he's effective at responding to things and runs a pretty good office. When Dylan Days, one of my projects, needed some help with visas some years ago his office provided quick assistance. It's not nearly enough for me to forgive him for his war votes or fervent support for the Mesaba Energy boondoggle on the Range, but his quick reactions are why people don't have strong negative feelings about him.

With his allegiance to ultra-unpopular President George W. Bush Coleman would normally be a good target. But Minnesota is a funny state and there's no guarantee that the DFL can get this one. I believe Bakk is underestimating Franken and overstating Ciresi's skills, but still; neither Franken nor Ciresi will have an easy time in beating Norm Coleman. They should; either one would be better, but for some reason Coleman knows the formula for calculating political fortunes and might escape.

This race also represents a change on the Iron Range. Most of the time, the Range delegation unifies behind a candidate. Heck, in any year prior to 2004 this race would see an Iron Range candidate. But everyone up north now realizes that Iron Rangers don't have the political or financial capital to mount a successful statewide run. Our last success story, Gov. Rudy Perpich, was a truly remarkable exception. But even so, normally the delegation backs one candidate. This time, you have the West Range legislators -- Reps. Tom Anzelc and Loren Solberg and Sen. Tom Saxhaug -- backing Franken. Bakk -- the "north" Range senator -- is backing Ciresi. It remains to be seen what Reps. Tony Sertich, Tom Rukavina and David Dill will do, but I don't think any of them are going to make an endorsement whole-heartedly. If you didn't need $10 million to run a campaign Sertich, Rukavina or Bakk would be in this race.

Also, on the subject of MN Publius's post, Tom Bakk may have been crowned "King of the Range" during a committee meeting last session, but the title is largely a joke. Bakk is chair of the Senate Tax Committee -- one of the most powerful spots in St. Paul -- which makes puffery a staple of his diet. The truth is no one is really in charge of this Iron Range delegation. They just are the way they are. It may be many years before we regain the influence we've lost since the 1980s and years more before another Iron Ranger is elected to a statewide office.

UPDATE: Don't forget to take part in the Quick Poll along the right side of the blog. Do you believe Santa Claus is A) real, B) not real, C) real in our hearts, or D) State Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-Cook).

Rukavina leads early balloting for U.S. Senate

Today is your last chance to vote in the online poll at the bottom of the site. The question? Which DFL figure would be most likely to defeat Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in the 2008 U.S. Senate race. Your options are Al Franken, Mike Ciresi, Norm Coleman from 1996 (then a Democrat who endorsed Paul Wellstone), and legendary Iron Range State. Rep. Tom Rukavina, who recently announced he may seek the 2010 DFL gubernatorial nomination. So far, Rukavina is beating Franken 2-1 with one sympathy vote for Ciresi. I interpret this as a sign that I am reaching my target audience with this blog.

Scroll down and vote. The results will be published tomorrow and just might influence the race. Like, for serious.

UPDATE: The vote totals held; Rukavina beats Franken 10-7 with two votes for Mike Ciresi. I'll try to think of another poll next week.