Have you seen Norm Coleman's new ad? He plays up how he brought hockey back to Minnesota back when he was Mayor of St. Paul.
How bad is it when an incumbent's best ad highlights something he did before he was elected to his current office the first time? Isn't that kind of like when your buddy wrecks your car and then reminds you of the "good times" back in college.
A reader heard Jesse Ventura on (N)PR today and tells me he sounds exactly like a candidate. I hate to be the one to say it, but he's a legitimate threat to win this race. Fiscal conservative. Anti-war. Perpetually angry. It's getting to be an angry year.
It would play out like this. At first, Ventura would siphon polling numbers away from my guy Al Franken. Everyone would get all hot and bothered and say that Franken is road meat and that Sen. Norm Coleman's real challenger is Ventura. At the debates, Jesse gets in Norm's grill and everyone, including Republicans, realize that Norm isn't especially likable. So then Norm's numbers dive and you've got a 30/30/30 poll taken the week before the election. Anyone could win in that situation. Franken's people might want to draw up a contingency plan that involves a bump draft behind an insurgent Ventura for a come-from-behind win. Remember Humphrey's folly!
UPDATE: ABC is reporting that Ventura implied he was running during the interview, which was apparently on National Public Radio.
Grace Kelly over at MNBlue is discussing the possibility of former moderate Republican Gov. Arne Carlson jumping into Minnesota's U.S. Senate race either as an independent or as a DFLer. What a world! What a world! The theory is based on some push polling that was done that included Arne's name as a DFL candidate. We don't know if his name was used because of legitimate buzz about a campaign or if it was used as a "baseline" because of his large, but dispassionate, popularity in the state.
It's hard to see any scenario where Coleman gets less than 35-40 percent of the vote, which is roughly equal to Al Franken's base as well. The reason Coleman has the advantage is his lead among moderate GOPers and right-leaning independents who crossed over for Amy Klobuchar and might cross over for Barack Obama, but who have yet to warm to Franken. It's hard to say whether Carlson would help or hurt Franken's cause or eat into the GOP base. And Jesse Ventura is still mulling a run, too, which would probably hurt Franken more than Coleman.
I still like Al Franken, but his road to the Senate will be very unlike that of traditional Democratic challengers this cycle.
Norm Coleman's latest TV ad has made it all the way to the heart of U.S. political snark at Wonkette. The fact that it's "real" no longer matters. (Though it still looks incredibly fake).
We have not yet plumbed the depth of weirdness we will see in this high-profile race.
UPDATE: Coleman campaign releases statement insisting green screen rumors are false.
This is old news to blogger types, but all over Minnesota's blogsphere -- especially among my friends at MNBlue and MNPublius -- observers are chattering about Sen. Norm Coleman's latest ad featuring his wife Laurie.
If you didn't know, one of the rumors that the Colemans have been unable to shake is that Laurie and Norm live apart: she in California and he in St. Paul and Washington and that their marriage is not what they portray it to be. I've got no confirmation on any of that; that's just the unshakable rumor that has dogged them for a decade. That's kind of an troublesome load to have rattling around in the back seat when you're trying to paint the stably married Al Franken as being out of touch with family values. This ad was clearly, clearly, designed to counter that rumor.
The only problem is that, if you look close, it appears that the ad was shot with the use of a "green screen" so that Laurie's part could be recorded in one place and Norm's part edited in later ... to make it look like they were in the same room. It would appear, and I would welcome evidence to the contrary, that the Coleman "We're Happily Married" ad was shot without the two spouses in the same room, which has to be some kind of political first. Check it out and judge for yourself. I could be wrong, but right before Norm gets up to take the garbage out it sure looks like a high school AV club run amok.
Even if they really were in the same room, the ad features Laurie saying "they'll say he's in the pocket of big oil" and Norm smiling by the garbage can at the end, which makes it a little politically misguided on its own. The wacky music is all that keeps it from spiraling into some kind of sad Russian drama.
Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura may likely run for the U.S. Senate this year, according to longtime adviser and briefly appointed U.S. Sen. Dean Barkley.
If Ventura does run, take all your conventional wisdom about the Franken vs. Coleman race and throw it out. I don't know that Ventura has a chance to actually win (it depends on how Coleman and Franken react to his candidacy). But he will take in a large number of disaffected Republicans, Democrats and independents in the disgruntled nooks and crannies of the political spectrum. He pulls 15 percent easy, with a ceiling around 40 (which could win).
But I'm betting that some lessons were learned after Ventura's surprise election as governor in 1998. Coleman and Franken will do a better job in keeping their bases than Coleman and Humphrey did that year. If it's all about the base, then Franken has a good chance. Polls show more self-identified Democrats in Minnesota than Republicans. And a lot of the veneer has worn off Ventura's act since 1998. He has shown some capability in politics, but has also taken far too many opportunities to make a buck when the cameras are pointed at him. And there is just no way I can see this guy stomaching six whole years in the United States Senate ... not without some kind of high profile incident.
Still, as this whole discussions shows, Minnesota remains an independent-minded state.
Old news, perhaps, but yesterday Rasmussen released numbers on the Minnesota Senate race. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken 48-45, within the margin of error and largely unchanged from the previous poll. But check out these demographic breakouts:
Moderates:
Coleman - 32%
Franken - 56%
Age 18-29:
Coleman - 35%
Franken - 65%
This year may well be decided by turnout and the presidential race. Rasmussen shows a 15 point lead for Obama, which will help Franken, and I imagine this is a race where moderates and young people turn out in enormous numbers. This seems like a straight-up tie to me, given the bad press Franken has had in recent weeks.
DFL delegates endorsed Al Franken on the first ballot in Rochester moments ago. I heard the results on MPR just as I was getting back from taking diapers to the dump in my rural Iron Range township. Later I am going to grill some stuff.
The lesson learned? Well, first, we've got to potty train these kids. Holy cow!
Second, Franken's well-publicized "baggage" regarding his prior work in comedy is going to be a problem, but like Obama's Wright connections it can be handled if dealt with honestly and clearly. What is most important is to make sure Minnesotans are focusing on issues this election, instead of parsing every word of Al's greatest and least greatest hits. The fact that MPR commentators would suggest that Norm Coleman would do best if this ended up as a "character" debate is unbelievable. Everybody knows why it's unbelievable. The only difference is that Al's jokes, made up jokes that weren't designed to reflect his political vision, are public information.
This won't be easy for Democrats, but it will be worth it. I have come to the conclusion that while Franken's negatives can be stoked by out-of-context quotes, Al is at his best when actually working with people and delivering his message on the campaign trail. He also has the funding base to match Coleman on the airwaves. Al will have to earn this one, but I think he's capable.
... er, smart rocks. Something clever. I have to work on my blog headlines.
There was a time there a few weeks ago when my favorite candidates, Barack Obama for president and Al Franken for Senate, were going through their respective former preacher and faux tax controversies at the same time. And, boy howdy, I was a sad panda. Moody, averse to television, I was no treat to be around. Today things are looking up in MinnesotaBrown land. Obama's posting 15 point leads in Minnesota and Franken has pulled back within two of Sen. Norm Coleman. When people start to associate candidates with actual issues like Iraq and the economy instead of the tripe that's dominated coverage of these big races, it stands to reason that both these candidates will pick up at least a few more points. That means that Obama could win Minnesota by Klobucharian proportions and Franken could win it by Wellstonian proportions.
This outcome is certainly not a done deal; this is a very volatile, competitive year. (and Hillary, McCain, Coleman and JNP fans among you, I know that you like your people, too, I'm just analyzin' here, friends). The headline for me, however, is that Franken weathered the worst month of his campaign so far and has nearly recovered his earlier numbers. Coleman and Franken both suffer from high negatives and low loyalty, according to the Rasmussen poll I cited earlier. So any race between them will be closer than the DFL/GOP index. But Franken has proven his bounce-back ability, just as Obama did a few weeks earlier. When he is endorsed next week, Franken will unroll his general election strategy and Apollo Creed will turn to his manager and say, "He doesn't know it's a damn show; he thinks it's a damn fight" and blah, blah, blah, something with Mr. T or the Russians and the good guys win eventually. That's the plan, anyway.
We must not forget, however, that there are pockets of trouble to watch out for. Bill Hanna and the Mesabi Daily News, the Range's largest daily paper, has taken a not-so-subtle editorial position ("How Heavy is the Baggage?" May 24) that anyone who doesn't A) have eerily shiny teeth and vote for coal gas tax breaks; or, B) ride an ATV from his bed to the breakfast table, is unfit for the United States Senate. With hit pieces like this raining down in a DFL stronghold, Franken must work on holding the line up here and winning new voters elsewhere to replace those who might be flecked off in areas like mine. (And kudos to my friend Tom Anzelc for sticking with Franken so forcefully).
It appears my dream of an all-writer top-of-the-DFL-ticket is coming true. For anyone who cares about this stuff, now is the time to get to work.
Oh, and postscript, the New York Times ran a story last weekend showing the importance of blogs in this Minnesota Senate race. I must admit, both camps have strong presences in the blogosphere. This could be a study case in the sophisticated new tactics of online campaigning.
Former Gov. Jesse Ventura (I-Minn.) is hinting at a U.S. Senate run again.
As Larry Jacobs notes in the story, his timing may be right ... again. As much as I am a fan of DFLer Al Franken, he has higher than average negatives for a challenger. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) has higher negatives and is running in a bad year for Republicans. Ventura also has high negatives but I've got a hunch that his biggest fans are the folks who don't like Coleman or Franken. My gut says Ventura in the race hurts Franken first, but Franken and Coleman equally if Ventura gets above 20 points. Unlike 1998, Franken and Coleman have a better grip on their respective bases now than Humphrey and the same Coleman did then.
Point is, I'll go on the record and say that Ventura in this race makes it very, very unpredictable, more so than it already is.
Jesse Ventura is toying with the idea of running for the U.S. Senate in his native Minnesota against incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and his top challenger Al Franken.
On one hand this is more plausible than the presidential campaign rumors we heard last week, but on the other I can't help but think this is still part of his new book's marketing campaign.
Everyone in Minnesota has learned not to dismiss Jesse Ventura like we did in early 1998. Objectively, I don't see a clear path for a Ventura victory. However, 2008 is a change year and Coleman and Franken both have high negatives. That was the witches brew that gave us Gov. Ventura ten years ago. I'm still in with my man Franken, but let's keep an eye on this.
By now, you may have read the news about Sen. Norm Coleman's campaign distributing mass letters to the editor for supporters to submit to papers around Minnesota. (MPR, MNPublius, AP). The letters were criticizing Coleman opponent Al Franken, the leading Democrat. While encouraging supporters to write letters to the editor is common practice, the concept of having several people sign the same letter in different areas is generally considered to be crossing a line.
I was swamped yesterday and we're saying a lot of prayers for my grandmother who is in the hospital in very serious condition. Anyway, I didn't get to some interesting tidbits I found over at www.mnblue.com, a progressive political blog of which I am a contributor.
As the MNBlue's "token Iron Ranger," I had to laugh when I saw Jerry Janezich, the Range's bearded bartending former State Senator, compared to Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer in this post. Yes, Jerry was the endorsed DFL candidate for U.S. Senate in 2000 thanks to the support of liberal interest groups, but he's a long way from being a liberal activist with a hyphenated last name.
And I'd be remiss not to mention the chatter that Sen. Norm Coleman may face a Republican primary challenge from former Sen. Rod Grams. Grams served one term before losing to millionaire Mark Dayton in the aforementioned 2000 campaign. In 2006, Grams lost a Congressional challenge to Rep. Jim Oberstar in Minnesota's 8th District. I doubt that Grams will pull the trigger on this, but the fact that he isn't swatting it down shows that there is a possibility. I can only imagine the kinds of ads that Grams would run against Al Franken after hearing his anti-Oberstar ads from last time. I envision an elderly woman with a thick Minnesota accent saying, "Oh, look at that Al Franken, acting like a big shooter."
U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman gave an interview to Scott Hall on the KAXE morning show today in which he covered a broad range of issues. KAXE is a unique and popular independent public radio station serving most of northern Minnesota. The most interesting details came near the end after Scott asked his final question, and Coleman's statements foretell many interesting developments.
First, here are the things that did not surprise me about Coleman's interview:
1) When it comes to a recession and people losing their houses, he's against it.
2) John McCain is A-OK.
3) He's not going for any sort of universal system that involves hurting the private insurance industry. Something, something, something ... rationing of care England and Canada. (Can I just add something: I have good insurance and my wife and I spent two hours in a clinic waiting room with two babies last week despite having an appointment ... OK, sorry for the editorializing).
But then there were a few things that DID surprise me about Coleman's interview:
1) When I first turned on the car radio, I caught the interview just after it had started. My first thought was, "Why is Mitt Romney on KAXE?" Then it hit me ... IT WAS NORM. I can't believe it took me that long to make the comparison.
2) Scott's last question was about universal health care, because he said it has been the dominant topic of all of Coleman's opponents seeking the DFL endorsement. Sen. Coleman didn't even answer the question until pressed later.
3) Instead of talking about health care, Coleman changed the topic to ensure that he got to talk about energy before the interview was over. Coleman said that energy needs were important, he would continue to support Excelsior Energy's Mesaba Energy Project, that Franken opposed the project and was wrong to do so, and that he was working on federal legislation to pay for pipelines to sequester carbon.
Now my opposition to Excelsior is well documented (columns from Aug. 12, 2007 and Feb. 3, 2008). The half dozen or so lobbyist-lawyers and their additional hired lobbyists (I shall call them meta-lobbyists) who comprise Excelsior tout it as a jobs project that would provide clean coal energy. However, the technology is prohibitively expensive and no one will buy the power at the extremely high prices unless forced to by the government. As recently as a week and a half ago I would have considered the project to be near death for these reasons. However, Coleman indicates that he will go to all known lengths to breathe life into this boondoggle.
One of the big stumbling blocks for Excelsior has been the unfortunate reality that, while the Range is the perfect place to find government funding for just about anything, it is physically located over a large, impenetrable sheet of granite. This "clean" technology requires the carbon to be buried beneath this geological formation, which is not practical or commercially viable. Thus the only way to make this a true carbon-capture plant is to pipe the carbon to Canada or North Dakota to bury it. The cost of this is yet unknown, but a billion dollars is probably where we start on that -- and that's not even included in the current Mesaba price tag of $2.15 billion. So guys like me have always assumed that Excelsior would get stopped at the permit stage because it can't bury the carbon as promised and can't afford to pipe it away.
Well, this morning Coleman said that he is supporting a bill that would pay for pipelines to remove carbon from "clean coal" plants. In other words, that billion-dollar plus price tag will be picked up by you and me, the people whose power bills will go up if this boondoggle gets built. When you further consider the fact that Excelsior's current operating budget is funded mostly by federal grants and a Iron Range Resources loan that will never be paid back, you see some unbelievable math.
Plant cost: $2.15 billion -- more than half of which will be covered by federal grants and guaranteed loans; in other words, if the plant fails taxpayers absorb the risk.
Pipeline cost: $1 billion, probably more -- again, funded by the taxpayers under Norm Coleman's plan.
Further parsing this short KAXE interview, we see that Norm Coleman intends to use Excelsior, a project that somehow combines the worst elements of socialism and capitalism, to win votes from Al Franken in northern Minnesota. Franken, who is very realistic on energy policy, says rightfully he needs to learn more about the technology and project before he lends it support. He would prefer other alternatives to coal explored first, which is reasonable given the many problems with clean coal technology. Norm is going to say that Al opposes jobs for northeastern Minnesota and tout Excelsior as an example.
People, it would be cheaper, cleaner and better for our northern economy to just give 150 random Iron Rangers $60,000 a year for the next 30 years, and 1,000 more $60,000 for just one year than to build this awful excuse for an economic development project.
I'm hoping that Coleman's weak answer on health care is all Iron Rangers need to hear to vote him out in favor of some truly innovative thinking.
PS: To all the DFLers who gave life to this project, thanks a billion. Actually, 2.15 billion. You've given a weak Republican incumbent who sits in Paul Wellstone's seat a chance to steal votes in the 8th CD for a project that will help no one but the wealthy lawyers who begat it.
This e-mail I got from the Franken for Senate campaign shows an interesting window into how both Al Franken and Sen. Norm Coleman plan to operate on the Iron Range. Norm will try to tell us that if we vote for him he'll open a box of butterflies and each butterfly will glow with a golden light and turn into a job for your grandson who moved away to White Bear Lake. The DFL has to watch out for this stuff. Meantime, U.S. Senators have a lot more to do with our country's wars, health care failures and education system than they do with the creation of mining jobs, which are entirely market-driven. Those are all things in which Norm has been useless to the Iron Range.
In today's Hibbing Daily Tribune:
Asked for a response, Tom Erickson, a spokesman for Coleman's Senate campaign, called Franken's attacks "distractions from his own flawed policies of tax increases, government-run health care and support for the anti-mining Sierra Club, whose endorsement Franken hopes to receive at a time when the Sierra Club is opposing four new mining projects" on the Iron Range.Never mind the irony of an incumbent's campaign referring to truthful discussion of that incumbent's record as "distractions." Mr. Erickson is 0-for-3 in his attacks on Al.
For the record:
Al does not advocate for "tax increases."
Al's health care plan does not involve the government "running" health care.
Al has never sought the endorsement of the Sierra Club and opposes the Sierra Club's position on Iron Range mining.~ Andy Barr, Communication Director, Al Franken for Senate
Today is your last chance to vote in the online poll at the bottom of the site. The question? Which DFL figure would be most likely to defeat Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in the 2008 U.S. Senate race. Your options are Al Franken, Mike Ciresi, Norm Coleman from 1996 (then a Democrat who endorsed Paul Wellstone), and legendary Iron Range State. Rep. Tom Rukavina, who recently announced he may seek the 2010 DFL gubernatorial nomination. So far, Rukavina is beating Franken 2-1 with one sympathy vote for Ciresi. I interpret this as a sign that I am reaching my target audience with this blog.
Scroll down and vote. The results will be published tomorrow and just might influence the race. Like, for serious.
UPDATE: The vote totals held; Rukavina beats Franken 10-7 with two votes for Mike Ciresi. I'll try to think of another poll next week.
